Politics

JUST IN: Early Vote Totals Revealed For Must-Win Special Elections

Published

3 days ago

March 31, 2025

Early voting is wrapping up in two must-win special elections in Florida, and the numbers are giving both parties reason to watch closely ahead of election day on Tuesday. The contests in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts—previously held by prominent Republicans Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz—have drawn national attention, especially as Democrats attempt to make inroads in traditionally conservative strongholds.

In the 1st District, Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s Chief Financial Officer and a Trump-endorsed candidate, is up against Democrat Gay Valimont, who previously ran against Gaetz in 2024. Despite the district’s deep red lean, Democrats are banking on energy from grassroots fundraising and a low-turnout environment to potentially close the gap.

According to figures from the Florida Division of Elections, Republicans hold a sizable 17-point advantage in early vote turnout in the 1st District—a sign that Patronis remains in a commanding position heading into election day.

Thank You Mr. President! Looking forward to Making America Great Again! https://t.co/khPtaa5X8x

— Jimmy Patronis (@JimmyPatronis) March 31, 2025

The 6th District, however, is shaping up to be more competitive than expected. GOP State Senator Randy Fine, also backed by Trump, faces Democrat Josh Weil, a school teacher whose campaign has garnered national liberal support. In the race, Republicans lead early turnout by roughly 9 points—far less than the 1st District—and GOP insiders are watching nervously.

I am honored and humbled to be @realDonaldTrump ‘s pick for Florida’s 6th Congressional District. I won’t let him — or you — down. #ItsGoingToBeFine pic.twitter.com/uaqWXPlXDq

— Senator Randy Fine (@VoteRandyFine) December 14, 2024

“Our campaign has the momentum, and that’s reflected in what we’ve seen in the early vote, because we remain focused on what truly matters to the voters,” Weil said in a statement to Newsweek. “I am dedicated to protecting Social Security, Medicare and lowering costs, ensuring that our seniors and families have the support they need thrive.”

“I’m grateful for the hundreds of thousands of Floridians and regular Americans who still believe in a better future. It’s that grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign,” Weil finished.

Data shows that 47,403 Republicans cast ballots early or by mail in the 6th, compared to 38,107 Democrats. Another 13,766 ballots were submitted by independents, with 1,659 votes coming from third-party or minor party registrants, according to Newsweek.

Atlanta, Georgia, USA – 4th Nov, 2024. Matt Gaetz, a member of the 118th Congress, serving his fourth term in the U.S. House of Representatives, speaks at a JD Vance rally a day before victory.

A poll from St. Pete Polls showed Fine with a slim 4-point edge over Weil, well within the 4.9-point margin of error. For a district that has leaned Republican for years, the tight numbers are sparking concerns that Democrats could capitalize on any last-minute GOP missteps or a strong independent turnout.

The vacancies emerged after Gaetz stepped down from Congress following his nomination by President Trump to serve as Attorney General—a position he later withdrew from. Waltz, meanwhile, left his seat to become Trump’s National Security Advisor during the administration’s second term.

Historically, special elections don’t draw significant turnout. But with these races possibly setting the tone for 2026, both parties have invested heavily. Democrats hope a surprise win—or even a close finish—could signal momentum heading into the midterms, where control of the House is up for grabs.

Still, Republicans are favored in both contests based on fundamentals, but Democrats see an opportunity to claim moral victories—and maybe more. Final votes will be tallied after polls close on Tuesday.