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JUST IN: First 2028 GOP Presidential Primary Poll Shows Clear Leader

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1 month ago

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A post-Trump Republican Party may not look so different, after all.

That’s the message voters are signaling based on their preferences for who the GOP puts at the top of the ticket in 2028, the first cycle in 12 years without President-elect Donald Trump. If the election were held today, 37% would like to see Vice President-elect J.D. Vance succeed his boss, according to a recent poll by Echelon Insights. Far behind in second place is Vivek Ramaswamy with 9% who is by no means a wallflower in the MAGA movement or one to be sidelined by losing the primary. Last week Trump announced Ramaswamy would join Elon Musk in co-managing a new agency focused on rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal government, affording him four years’ worth of opportunities to make himself a household name.

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The survey of 483 voters between November 11th and 18th is small and carries a sizable margin of error but remains a valid insight into how far Vance has crept past his competition. At 40 years old, the first-term Ohio senator will be among the youngest vice presidents in American history, sitting only behind former President Richard M. Nixon who celebrated his 40th birthday days before the 1953 inauguration; and John C. Breckinridge, who the New York Times reported was 36 when he was sworn in as James Buchanan’s vice president in 1857. Both men eventually sought the White House themselves.

Also in the mix are Nikki Haley (9%), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (8%), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) with 5%, and Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio (5%). Assuming his likely confirmation by the U.S. Senate, Rubio will join Vance and Ramaswamy in the second Trump administration as one of the highest-ranking members of the president’s cabinet where he is expected to throw himself into resolving wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. However, all four have achieved well-known, longtime status in American politics and pursued the White House during one cycle or another, and the undulations of a Republican primary would give each the opportunity for viral moments to change their standings in the polls.

Echelon Insights on Tuesday released other poll results showing that a healthy majority of Americans are giving President-elect Trump the benefit of the doubt when it comes to Ramaswamy, Rubio, and his other appointments. Among them are South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to lead the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Pete Hegseth for U.S. Secretary of Defense, and Matt Gaetz for U.S. Attorney General. Each must survive his or her own confirmation hearings, and allies to Trump are making it clear that they expect a Republican-controlled Senate to fall in line behind a popular incoming president. From the inside, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) urged his colleagues to do so during an interview on CNBC Tuesday.

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On the Democratic side, 41% of poll respondents said they would prefer to see Vice President Kamala Harris make another go of it in 2028, a painful reminder of the party’s struggle to move on from a nominee who fared worse than President Joe Biden in every single part of the country. Regardless, her position is similar to Vance’s, and she sits far ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom in second place with 8% support. Rounding out the top five are Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (7%), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (6%), and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (6%). Nearly a third of voters are undecided on a Democratic nominee compared to 27% for Republicans, underscoring the bitter struggle to lead a party that will be rudderless after Biden leaves office.

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