JUST IN: GOP Senate Candidate Takes Lead In Polls With Just Hours Till Election Day

Throughout the 2024 cycle, the Ohio Senate race between Republican challenger Bernie Moreno and Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown has been one of the nation’s most tightly watched contests.

Brown held a lead throughout the race, but in a late shift, Moreno has now edged ahead in the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time, taking a narrow 0.4-point lead over Brown. The latest average shows Moreno at 46.4% and Brown at 46.0%, signaling a potential swing in momentum as Ohio voters prepare to head to the polls. Moreno’s boost in the polls comes after new data from The Hill/Emerson, which surveyed likely voters from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 and found Moreno with a 3-point lead over Brown.

In the poll, Moreno leads with 48% of the vote while Brown has 45% support, although 6% of voters remain undecided. When potential shifts from undecided voters are considered, the projection shows Moreno could secure 52% of the vote compared to Brown’s 48%. Morning Consult’s poll, conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 1, also gave Moreno a slight edge, while other polls, including Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green/YouGov, indicate the race remains neck-and-neck.

🚨 BREAKING: Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno now LEADS THE POLLS for Senate. pic.twitter.com/BchL2oTFVG

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024

The race between Moreno and Brown for Ohio’s Senate seat has evolved into one of the most closely watched and competitive contests of the election season. What initially appeared to be a straightforward re-election bid for Brown has turned into a nail-biter, as Moreno, a businessman with conservative backing, has managed to close the gap and even take a slight lead in the final days before Election Day.

Brown, who has held the Senate seat since 2007, entered the race with significant name recognition and a record of winning in a state that has increasingly leaned Republican in recent elections. Brown initially seemed well-positioned to fend off challengers as polls in the early months of the race showed him holding a modest but consistent lead.

Moreno, a businessman with a background in the auto industry and technology sectors, officially entered the race with a campaign that has largely focused on conservative values, economic growth, and challenging Washington’s “status quo.” Moreno framed himself as an outsider willing to shake up the establishment. His campaign has leaned into populist messaging, resonating with Ohio’s conservative and right-leaning voters, especially as the state has shown a trend toward Republican candidates in recent cycles.

As the summer wore on, polls reflected a tightening race. Moreno’s support steadily grew as he gained endorsements from prominent conservative figures and tapped into voter frustration with the current state of the economy and the federal government. As the campaign moved into the fall, Moreno’s polling numbers continued to improve. For Republicans, a Moreno win would mark a significant victory in a state trending red, solidifying GOP influence in Ohio and adding to conservative momentum nationwide.

Ohio’s political landscape has shifted rightward in recent years, which poses a challenge for Brown, a Democrat in a state that went for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. In the Senate, the balance of power stands at 51 Democrats (including four independents) and 49 Republicans.

This cycle features 34 Senate seats up for grabs, with Democrats and Independents defending 23 of those. The Republicans could regain control of the Senate with a net gain of two seats, or by securing the presidency in 2024 and gaining just one additional Senate seat.

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