JUST IN: Iran Dealt Crushing Blow As Regime Loses ‘Significant Control’ Over Strait Of Hormuz

Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz appears to be slipping as U.S.-protected vessels increasingly defy Tehran’s demands and travel through an Omani shipping lane.

CNN was forced to report that more than 80% of liquid cargo shipments crossing the Strait of Hormuz during the past two weeks either used the Omani route or went dark during transit, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. Vessels traveling dark likely used the same passage while keeping their transponders switched off.

The United Nations-authorized channel runs along Oman’s northern coast and has emerged as the preferred route for ships seeking to avoid Iranian control.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.

Iran has attacked dozens of vessels attempting to use the Omani route after declaring the vital waterway under its control. But shipping companies are increasingly brushing aside Tehran’s threats and relying on protection from U.S. naval forces patrolling the area.

The shift marks a stunning reversal from just one month ago, when Kpler recorded virtually no traffic using the Omani channel.

It has also dealt a financial blow to Tehran. Iran collected tolls from vessels traveling its preferred route during the spring, but the sharp decline in that traffic has largely cut off the revenue stream.

The expiration of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran this week theoretically cleared the way for Tehran to resume charging tolls. Kpler’s data, however, indicates Iran has been unable to enforce the payments.

“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also developed another strategy to keep their oil moving despite Iranian attacks.

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The countries have chartered very large crude carriers, known as VLCCs, to haul oil through the Strait of Hormuz before transferring it to customers’ tankers outside the most dangerous waters in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

Many of those massive tankers have shut down their transponders for weeks at a time to make themselves more difficult for Iran to target. The tactic has also made the vessels harder for commercial services such as Kpler to monitor, though some can still be detected using satellite imagery.

The U.S. military, which has deployed substantial naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz, has maintained a broader picture of the shipping traffic. Its figures suggest considerably more oil is moving through and around the waterway than traditional tracking estimates previously showed.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that oil shipments passing through the strait or traveling along alternative routes totaled roughly 15 million barrels per day over a one-week period.

That figure is approaching the approximately 20 million barrels per day that moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, suggesting Tehran’s effort to choke off one of the world’s most important energy corridors is beginning to falter.

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