New polling in Arizona’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race is showing a path to victory for firebrand conservative Kari Lake after she remained mired on the losing side of the numbers for months.
Lake, who ran for governor in 2022 with President Trump’s endorsement, now leads her likely Democratic rival, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) by two percent, according to an analysis conducted by The Hill. As the outlet notes, early polling gave a leg up to Gallego, but Lake for months has been hammering home the message that the uncontrollable flood of migrants across the state’s southern border is the result of his enabling of President Biden’s immigration policies. The state went for President Trump by 3.5% in 2016 and was narrowly carried by President Joe Biden by 0.3% four years later.
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Fundamental factors like partisan lean and incumbency are factored into the results, both of which add up to now show that Arizonians are so fed up with migration and high costs of living that Rep. Gallego is not benefitting from his congressional incumbency. In February, Lake launched her campaign and consistently remained about 5% behind Gallego in poll after poll, though his edge has narrowed to a razor-thin margin in the past few weeks. The last poll, conducted just days after President Biden’s disastrous debate, showed the two tied at 47% apiece.
Observers believe Lake is walking a fine line between remaining true to her MAGA roots while modulating her message to better fit the 2024 electorate. After losing the 2022 campaign to then-candidate and now-Governor Katie Hobbs, Lake launched a flurry of legal challenges seeking a recount, all of which were dismissed. Recently, she took heat for suggesting that Arizonans “strap on a Glock” ahead of November’s elections, a remark that was denounced by U.S. Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), the husband of former congresswoman Gabby Giffords who was nearly killed after being shot in the head by a deranged gunman in 2010.
These days, Lake can be heard making the rounds with appeals to bread-and-butter issues — Washington dysfunction, runaway inflation, and the need for more housing in the southwest. She has received a slew of high-profile endorsements to help her through the Republican primary on July 30th, including nods from 23 of the U.S. Senate’s 49 Republicans. In April, President Trump hosted Lake at Mar-a-Lago where she broke the club’s fundraising record for a non-incumbent, raising more than $1 million.
Lake’s event comes on the heels of a separate Washington, D.C.-area fundraiser set up for Lake by the Republican National Committee which netted the spitfire conservative another $350,000, according to POLITICO, after she secured the endorsement of GOP Senate fundraising chief Steve Daines.
Lake also made national news late last year when it was revealed that the former chair of the Arizona GOP tried to urge her into dropping out, saying that “folks out East” would scratch her back if she cleared the way for a more moderate candidate. She refused, later telling Glenn Beck that she told then-chair Jeff DeWitt she was disgusted and celebrated his resignation following the botched strongarming.
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