JUST IN: Mike Collins Surges In Georgia Senate Primary

Congressman Mike Collins (R-GA) is holding firm at the top of Georgia’s Republican Senate primary, according to new data from Quantus Insights.

The October 21–22 survey of 1,320 likely Republican primary voters shows a competitive three-way race shaped by a large undecided bloc, the influence of Governor Brian Kemp’s endorsement, and the staying power of Collins’ early advantage.

The poll finds Collins leading with 28.0% support, followed by Buddy Carter at 16.1% and Derek Dooley at 16.0%, while 40.0% remain undecided. The survey, conducted via SMS messaging and stratified by region, age, and gender, carries a margin of error of ±2.7%.

In head-to-head matchups, Collins continues to lead comfortably. Against Carter, he holds a 38.4% to 23.4% advantage, with 38.2% not sure. Facing Dooley, Collins leads 42.0% to 23.8%, with 34.1% not sure. Among undecided leaners, Collins draws 14.3%, compared to 9.2% for Carter and 9.1% for Dooley, suggesting he has the widest “soft” lane to consolidate support as the campaign intensifies.

Following Kemp’s endorsement of Dooley, Quantus modeled a range of undecided break scenarios. Across plausible distributions, Collins consistently remains the most probable leader, while both Carter and Dooley would need statistically unlikely consolidation levels to overtake him. In scenarios with realistic splits — either proportional to leaners or even — Collins stays on top, typically landing near or above the mid-40s.

Dooley’s best-case outcome would require capturing roughly 60% of all undecideds, a pattern Quantus notes is “not supported by our undecided leaners,” where Dooley and Carter are roughly equal and both trail Collins.

Even under a 30/30/40 environment favoring Dooley — consistent with a mild awareness bump or short-lived media cycle — Collins would remain ahead by about five points overall after reweighting the undecided share. Quantus says such a shift has only a 10–15% probability.

In an even more extreme 25/25/50 scenario, Collins would still lead 38.0–36.0, though capturing half of all undecideds remains an outlier at roughly 2–4% likelihood based on Quantus’ central Dirichlet/Beta calibration.

The October survey follows Quantus’ September benchmark of Georgia GOP voters and shows little movement in the overall structure of the race. Carter’s support has softened slightly, while Collins continues to hold steady at the top.

Despite the surge of television ads funded by Kemp’s federal PAC and Dooley’s campaign, Dooley’s gains appear limited in scope. Carter’s heavier spending has yet to produce growth, suggesting his name recognition is near saturation while Collins continues to appeal to both fiscal conservatives and Trump-aligned voters.

Quantus’ modeling indicates that for Dooley to surpass Collins, he would need to capture around 60% of all remaining undecideds — a scenario with ≤1% statistical probability. Even under modestly pro-Dooley assumptions, Collins still holds a narrow edge near the mid-40s.

Head-to-head data show Carter’s supporters align more closely with Collins than Dooley, meaning as undecideds break and lower-tier candidates fade, Carter’s base is more likely to migrate toward Collins.

Ultimately, Collins continues to lead in all tested scenarios despite a united push from Georgia’s establishment wing. The governor’s endorsement and heavy ad spending have changed awareness — but not preference. With 40% still undecided, the race could still tighten, but for now, Collins remains the most stable and probable frontrunner in the 2026 Georgia Republican Senate primary.

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