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JUST IN: New York Times Releases Final Nationwide Poll, Stuns Democrats

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If the New York Times releases a poll showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied with 12 days to go, the Trump campaign is feeling pretty good.

The result of the Gray Lady’s final survey in partnership with Siena College shows the two deadlocked at 48%, a figure writers say indicates that Americans are “evenly divided” about who they want in the White House. Some observers dug beneath the topline numbers, comparing them to those from four years ago. Back then, candidate Joe Biden led President Trump by 9% while the Republican’s margin of support among white voters was only +6, and election forecaster Nate Silver gave Biden an 89% chance of winning. Fast forward to today and Trump’s lead among white voters, who made up 71% of the electorate in 2022 according to NPR, has increased to +11.

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The survey carries a +/- margin of 3%, was taken between October 20th and 23rd, and included responses from 2,563 likely voters. Since the Times’ last survey completed on October 6th, Trump’s topline number has grown by 2 points while Harris has lost 1 point. Even worse news for Harris: in states where Jill Stein, the quixotic third-party Green Party candidate, is on the ballot, President Trump gains 3 points and leads Harris 47-46%.

The latter scenario may spell doom for Harris in swing states where progressives upset over her lackluster support for the Palestinian cause has prompted thousands of voters to threaten to remain uncommitted in the race. Stein is on the ballot in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which make up the “blue wall” that Democrats have traditionally relied on to collect 270 electoral votes. Michigan in particular has been nothing but misery for Harris given the state’s heavy Arab-American population and progressive collection of college students in populous Ann Arbor. President Trump has repeatedly visited the state, including capital city Detroit, in order to keep cutting into Harris’s lead among minority voters.

Sensing peril, the Democratic National Committee last week released a new ad titled “Danger” which Newsweek reports informs voters about the threat posed by voting for Stein. Dystopian imagery shows Stein’s face transforming into Trump’s as a message reads, “A vote for Stein is really a vote for Trump.” On Thursday Quinnipiac University released its latest Michigan poll showing Stein and progressive independent candidate Cornell West each siphoning 1% away from Harris.

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The Times poll is also rebutted by a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday showing Trump leading Harris 47-45% nationally, a sign that the Times may be underestimating the Republican’s silent majority of supporters who are notoriously hard to prognosticate. To be sure, the former president also faces a threat on his flank in the form of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who despite dropping out and endorsing Trump continues to collect 2% support in the WSJ poll. Another 3% of voters remain undecided, enough to tip the balance of the election either way.

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