BREAKING: Pete Hegseth’s Confirmation Odds Skyrocket After Contentious Hearing

Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, emerged from a fiery confirmation hearing on Tuesday with momentum that appears to have solidified his path to Senate approval. Over the course of four hours, the nominee faced pointed and, at times, combative questioning from Democratic senators, while Republicans largely defended his qualifications and policy stances. Prior to the hearing, Hegseth’s confirmation was far from certain.

Hegseth, the former Army officer and Fox News contributor, fielded sharp criticism from Democrats who questioned his comments on military diversity programs and past advocacy for overhauling the Pentagon’s bureaucracy. Hegseth, in response, maintained his demeanor and stood firm on his positions.

Several moderate Republican senators had expressed their hesitations about his rhetoric and unorthodox views on military reform. However, many noted that the aggressive tactics employed by some Democrats during the hearing may have unintentionally unified GOP senators around Hegseth, making his confirmation increasingly likely. A dramatic shift in sentiment was reflected in prediction markets, where Hegseth’s odds of confirmation soared to 90%, up from roughly 50% earlier in December. Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, showed significant betting activity following the hearing.

Outside the hearing, the partisan divide was evident in public reactions. Commentator Dan Turrentine took to social media, suggesting that Democratic senators had overplayed their hand. “Going into Pete Hegseth’s hearing, I thought it was 50/50 he’d be confirmed due to some Republican concerns,” Turrentine tweeted. “Some Democrats were so bad, so over-the-top, so embarrassing today, I now wonder if they made it impossible for any Republican senator to vote against him.”

On Tuesday, Hegseth retorted that media outlets like the New York Times and New Yorker have concocted a “smear campaign” against him, bullying his mother into answering questions about a disavowed email she sent her son years ago or pestering Fox News employees for negative anecdotes about his time on the set of “Fox & Friends.

“It is not in the interest of such outlets to report the truth, said an agitated Hegseth, only an agenda,” he said. “The media in America today, sadly, doesn’t care about the truth. All they’re out to do, Mr. Chairman, is to destroy me. And why do they want to destroy me? Because I’m a change agent and a threat to them because Donald Trump was willing to choose me, to empower me, to bring the Defense Department back to what it really should be, which is warfighting.”

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“So I’m willing to endure these attacks,” he continued, “but what I will do is stand up for the truth and for my reputation. False attacks, anonymous attacks, repeated ad nauseam, printed ad nauseam as facts. We have provided… on-the-record statement after on-the-record statement from people who have served with me, worked with me at Fox News, Concerned Vets, Vets for Freedom, you name it. From the top of the chain to the bottom, from people who say I treat them with respect, with kindness, with dignity. That’s men, that’s women, that’s Black, that’s white, that’s every background.”

With Senate Republicans holding a narrow majority, Hegseth’s confirmation now appears to hinge on party unity. If the post-hearing dynamics hold, the full Senate could vote on his nomination as early as next week, and his confirmation may mark a significant step in the Trump administration’s plans for military reform. The Senate currently has a 53-47 Republican majority, so Hegseth can afford no more than three Republican defections if all Democrats oppose his confirmation. A simple majority is required for confirmation.