JUST IN: Poll Of Arab Americans Stuns Political Pundits, Reveals Game-Changing Development

With just two weeks left until Election Day, a new poll of Arab-American voters has shaken up the presidential race. The poll, conducted by YouGov and commissioned by Arab News Research & Studies Unit, reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a slight 2-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab-American voters. The significant development comes as the Middle East conflict has taken center stage in the presidential campaigns since last year.

The poll indicates a strong expected turnout, with 87% of Arab-Americans planning to vote in the upcoming election. Palestine remains the top priority for many respondents, a factor that may be driving Trump’s slight lead. His administration’s past policy approaches to the Middle East, compared to Harris’s, appear to resonate with this voter bloc, especially as the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict dominates headlines.

The poll, conducted between September 26 and October 1, sampled 500 Arab-Americans nationwide. While the poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.93%, it sheds light on the candidates’ standings within this crucial demographic, which could sway results in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Arab-American populations are significant.

The poll also explores voters’ broader perspectives on issues related to the Middle East. When asked which “presidential administrations would be most likely to successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict,” respondents were divided: 39% favored Trump, while 33% supported Harris. Jill Stein, running as a Green Party candidate, also garnered 8% support. Notably, 11% of respondents said neither major party candidate would effectively handle Middle East policies.

Meanwhile, 38% believe a two-state solution is the most viable path forward for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Arab-American voters appear divided on how U.S. foreign policy should shift under a new administration. For instance, 41% believe the next administration should focus on diplomacy with Iran, while 32% prefer maximum diplomatic pressure and increased sanctions. Only 4% advocate military intervention.

Another poll by the Arab American Institute (AAI) also reveals a strikingly divided Arab American electorate ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The poll shows Trump and Harris virtually tied among Arab American voters, with 42% backing Trump and 41% supporting Harris. Concerns over the Biden administration’s handling of the Gaza crisis have led to a major shift in Arab American support, leaving the community evenly split at 38% for both Republicans and Democrats.

The polls come amid rising tensions in Gaza, which has emerged as a pivotal issue for the Arab-American voting bloc. An overwhelming 81% of respondents listed Gaza as a significant factor in their voting decision. The poll also found that Harris has managed to regain some ground lost by President Joe Biden, yet her support remains 18 points lower than Biden’s 2020 numbers among Arab Americans.

For Harris, Arab American voter turnout could decline. Historically, this community has shown strong participation rates, often exceeding 80%. However, only 63% of respondents expressed enthusiasm for voting this year, and only 55% of young voters aged 18-29 said they are eager to vote. The data also indicates a path for both Trump and Harris to increase support by addressing Gaza-related policies. According to the poll, Harris could see her support jump to 60% if she were to advocate for an immediate ceasefire and unrestricted humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Similarly, Trump’s backing could rise to 55% if he made similar demands.

Historically, Arab American voters have leaned Democratic, especially in presidential elections. In recent elections, however, there’s been a shift among some Arab voters, with more support for Republicans.

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