JUST IN: Republicans Flip Democrat Congresswoman’s Seat, Expand Majority

Republican Nick Begich has ousted incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola (D-AK), who currently represents Alaska’s at-large congressional district. The victory expands the Republican Party’s secured number of seats to 220, building on the minimum number of 218 seats required for a majority in the chamber.

Peltola managed to flip the seat after a marathon stretch of primary elections, all of which employed ranked-choice voting, in 2022. After beating out Begich and another Democrat challenger in the initial primaries, the Democrat managed to narrowly defeat former Governor Sarah Palin in the final head-to-head matchup.

The seat had been held by the late Don Young, a Republican who had held the seat since 1973, until he passed away in 2022.

Peltola finished first in this summer’s top-four, nonpartisan primary, followed by Begich and Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom, another Republican. The GOP ultimately coalesced around Begich in order to avoid party infighting and focus on unseating Peltola.

Begich ultimately managed to unseat his Democratic Party rival by a narrow margin, which is projected to be below 10,000 votes.

The marathon primary cycle was just the second under the state’s ranked choice voting system, though changes to the process will be on the ballot this fall.

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Peltola attends a pro-abortion rally in Anchorage, Alaska

The Alaska pick-up — which had been targeted as a top priority by House GOP fundraisers — expands the Republican lead in the U.S. House of Representatives by another vote.

In 2024, Republicans managed to hold onto several seats held by vulnerable incumbents, including Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) and David Valadao (R-CA), while House Freedom Caucus member Scott Perry (R-PA) managed to fend off the most significant challenge of his career after he was targeted by the Biden Department of Justice for objecting to the results of the 2020 election

The GOP also managed to flip several seats that have long been on the party’s radar, including in Pennsylvania’s Eighth Congressional District, which encompasses President Biden’s birthplace of Scranton. U.S. Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) managed to hold on in the Republican leaning district — which was carried by President Trump in all three presidential election cycles dating back to 2016 — for multiple cycles before he was defeated by local businessman Rob Bresnehan on election night.

The final number of seats that will be controlled by Republicans remains uncertain, as votes are still being tallied in a number of west coast states. It is still entirely possible that the party will expand on its narrow margin and give President-elect Trump additional room to navigate.

Republicans will need to fill at least two seats filled by Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL), both of whom have accepted roles in the Trump Administration. A special election to fill Stefanik’s district — which the Cook Partisan Voting Index currently grades as R+9 — will be held within 90 days. While Republicans are projected to hold the seat, it could be close as opposition parties tend to be galvanized for special elections.

The party will also need to fill another deep red seat in Florida, where U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned after being nominated for the Trump Administration’s attorney general position.

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