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JUST IN: Top Election Forecaster Reveals Major Shift In The 2024 Race

Published

3 weeks ago

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With just eight days left until Election Day, a significant shift in the 2024 presidential race is showing. According to the latest forecast from Nate Silver, former President Donald Trump now has a 55% chance of winning the presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 45% chance. This is a notable change in momentum as the campaigns enter their final stretch.

Silver’s model predicts Trump winning 271 electoral votes, narrowly surpassing the 270 threshold needed to secure the presidency, compared to Harris’s projected 267 electoral votes.

In terms of swing state probabilities, Trump is now projected to lead in Pennsylvania (56%-44%), Arizona (69%-31%), Georgia (64%-36%), and North Carolina (65%-35%). He’s also slightly ahead in Nevada, with a 50%-49% edge. Harris, however, is forecasted to maintain slight leads in Wisconsin (51%-49%) and Michigan (53%-47%), two Midwestern states critical to her path to victory. These states have seen intensive campaigning from both candidates as they attempt to lock in voter support.

The forecast also reflects the fluctuating nature of public sentiment. Just a month ago, Harris was leading in several of these battlegrounds, but a series of factors—ranging from economic concerns to foreign policy developments—appear to have shifted voter sentiment. Trump’s focus on issues like inflation and border security has resonated with a substantial portion of undecided voters, giving him a boost in the closing days of the race.

Further complicating the outcome is the U.S. House of Representatives race, which is predicted to be equally tight. According to Polymarket odds, Republicans have a 51% chance of retaining control, while Democrats are at 49%. The thin margin adds another level of uncertainty to Election Day, as control of Congress could significantly influence the next administration’s agenda.

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In FiveThirtyEight’s simulations, Trump wins 54 times out of 100, while Harris wins 46 times. There is also a slim chance—less than 1 in 100—that no candidate secures the necessary 270 electoral votes, potentially pushing the decision to the House of Representatives. Such an outcome would be a historic scenario not seen since the 19th century.

via FiveThirtyEight

Four years ago, the 2020 presidential election was one of the closest in U.S. history for Donald Trump. Trump came close of winning key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Just a shift of roughly 44,000 votes in those states would have secured him a second term. If Trump can flip just a small percentage of voters in these swing states, it could be enough to deliver a victory. In places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where Trump has already shown he can compete strongly, even a 1-2% swing could make all the difference.

With this small but crucial shift, Trump could find himself back in the White House come January 2025.

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