JUST IN: Trump Up Big In Latest NYT Poll, Has Made Significant Gains With Women, Latinos

Former President Donald Trump is up big in a new poll released by the New York Times and Siena College on Saturday.

Among registered voters, Trump leads President Biden by five points overall among registered voters, 48 percent to 43 percent, with 10 percent uncommitted. Trump is ahead by four points among likely voters.

The poll also showed that the former president is gaining ground with a number of key demographics while Biden is losing support among groups that overwhelmingly backed him in 2020.

Among black voters, President Biden’s support has declined to 66 percent, a steep drop from his 2020 election numbers. Biden won roughly 90 percent of black voters in 2020. Trump leads among white voters at 53 percent and is also winning a plurality of Hispanic voters with 46 percent of the vote.

Independent voters were split, NYT and Siena found, with 42 percent of registered independent voters supporting both Trump and Biden respectively.

For comparison, the earliest NYT/Siena poll in 2020 had Biden winning by 14 points. Now they have him losing by 5 points — a 19 point swing. (And their last 2020 poll had Biden winning a national election by 9 –so they routinely overestimate Biden's level of support) https://t.co/Ah0GVAcinr

— Mollie (@MZHemingway) March 2, 2024

Voters who supported President Trump in 2020 will overwhelmingly do so again, the poll found, with 97 percent of respondents indicating that they will vote for him again in November. This was a much higher total than President Biden, who was only guaranteed support from 83 percent of his 2020 voters.

The trend held for Democratic primary voters, who are significantly less motivated than their Republican counterparts, the poll found. Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters are either unenthusiastic or dissatisfied about Biden’s re-election candidacy.

Among Republican primary voters, more than 75 percent of respondents are either enthusiastic about Trump or satisfied, with 46 percent saying they are enthusiastic.

10 percent of respondents indicated that they voted for Biden four years ago, but will now be backing Trump in November.

Keeping with polling trends observed over the last year, a majority of voters gave Biden poor marks for his handling of the economy and inflation. Less than a fifth of respondents said they have benefitted from Biden’s policies, while 43 percent of registered voters indicated that the Biden Administration has hurt them.