JUST IN: Trump Wins Key State Despite ‘Gold Standard’ Pollster Showing Kamala Up Big

Former President Donald Trump has secured a win in Iowa, a state projected to be closer than anticipated in the 2024 presidential race. The victory was projected by Decision Desk HQ just days after a much-discussed poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer showed Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by three percentage points.

Selzer, who is often regarded as the “gold standard” in Iowa polling for her accurate and independent analyses, had revealed a tight race that momentarily shifted the narrative around Trump’s expected support in this predominantly conservative Midwestern state.

Selzer’s poll, released shortly before Election Day, captured national attention as it depicted Harris with a narrow lead over Trump, 47% to 44%. The results were surprising, as Trump won Iowa by a comfortable margin in the 2020 election, defeating President Joe Biden by over eight points. The unexpected findings in Iowa sparked speculation on both sides of the aisle, raising questions about Trump’s stability among white, working-class voters and whether his support had weakened with critical demographics, including women and Independent voters.

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Ann Selzer’s polling firm, Selzer & Company, has long been known for its precise voter sampling and accuracy, especially in the context of the Iowa caucuses and key elections. Selzer’s credibility in the industry is well-established; her firm’s projections are renowned for going against “herding,” a phenomenon where pollsters adjust their results to align with prevailing polling trends.

Instead, Selzer’s firm often confidently publishes outlier results that reflect unique insights into the electorate. The unexpected poll favoring Harris caused a stir, not only because of Selzer’s standing as a trusted pollster but also due to the potential implications it held for Trump’s standing in other competitive regions.

*TRUMP WINS IOWA: NBC

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— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 6, 2024

Nate Silver, a data journalist and founder of FiveThirtyEight, has previously awarded Selzer’s firm an A+ rating for its historical accuracy and commitment to independent methodology. The credibility of Selzer’s results led to considerable discussion among political analysts, with some speculating that if Trump could lose support in a predominantly white and traditionally conservative state like Iowa, it could reflect vulnerabilities in his appeal among key demographics. According to the poll, Independent voters and women over the age of 65 showed a noticeable lean toward Harris, which appeared to signal a potential challenge for Trump among similar voters in other states, despite the fact that Trump had won Iowa by 8.2 points in 2020.

Fast forward to the 2024 election, and Iowa has once again given Trump its six electoral votes.