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JUST IN: Virginia Poll Throws Massive Wrench Into Electoral Map With Days To Go

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2 months ago

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With just 11 days remaining until Election Day, the latest poll out of Virginia has thrown a wrench into the electoral map. A Quantus Insights poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a narrow margin: 49% to 48%.

Early on in the cycle, Virginia appeared to be leaning blue once again. Now, with days to go, Harris is clinging to a one-point advantage, and the state is shaping up to be a close contest. Harris maintains a solid lead among female voters, capturing 53% of their support compared to Trump’s 44%. However, the former president remains popular among men, with 52% of male voters favoring him over Harris’s 45%.

According to the poll, Harris’s strength in Virginia is largely buoyed by younger voters. Among those aged 18-29, she holds a solid 53%, while voters aged 30-44 favor her at 55%. Meanwhile, Trump performs well among older voters, leading with 52% in both the 45-64 and 65+ age brackets. Harris sees a decisive 77% of the Black vote, a critical constituency for her. Trump, meanwhile, leads among White voters with 57% support. Among Hispanic and other minority voters, Harris has a steady lead at 55% compared to Trump’s 41%.

The education divide remains pronounced, with Harris performing better among college-educated voters, leading 55% to 43%. On the other hand, Trump continues to draw support from non-college voters, holding a 52% to 45% advantage. Independents are nearly evenly split, with Harris leading 47% to Trump’s 45%.

Virginia’s sudden competitiveness suggests a more complex electoral map than anticipated. Trump has yet to turn the state red since running in 2016, and the last time Virginia voted Republican in a presidential election was in 2004. During that election, incumbent President George W. Bush won the state over Democratic challenger John Kerry. Bush secured 53.7% of the vote in Virginia, while Kerry received 45.5%. At the time, Virginia was still considered a reliably red state, consistently voting Republican in presidential races since 1968. However, the state’s political landscape shifted blue in the years that followed.

In the 2020 presidential election, Virginia firmly remained a Democratic stronghold. Joe Biden won the state by a decisive margin, securing 54.1% of the vote compared to Donald Trump’s 44%. This result marked a continuation of Virginia’s trend, as the state has leaned Democratic in every presidential election since 2008.

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In 2016, Virginia also favored the Democratic ticket, with Hillary Clinton defeating Trump by a narrower margin than Biden’s victory in 2020. Clinton garnered 49.7% of the vote, while Trump captured 44.4%. Similar to 2020, the Democratic edge was largely fueled by the growth and diversification of Northern Virginia, along with urban centers and college towns.

The new neck-and-neck numbers could shift based on voter turnout strategies in the final days. If Trump can mobilize his base, he could close the gap further or even take the lead. As the final days before Election Day unfold, Virginia’s toss-up status adds to the uncertainty of the overall electoral picture. A state once considered a reliable Democratic stronghold now finds itself teetering on the brink of swing-state status.

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