Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake has jumped out to a sizable lead over incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema — a former Democrat who switched her party registration to independent last year — as well as the far-left U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego.
The VCreek/AMG poll, which was released by Americas PAC, found Lake in the lead with 41 percent of the vote. Gallego trailed in second with 35 percent of the vote while Sinema lagged far behind with 16 percent. An additional seven percent remain undecided while one percent of respondents would prefer “someone else.”
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) December 20, 2023
When asked about the latest poll during an appearance on Fox News, Lake blamed the collapse of the southern border as a primary factor contributing to her surge. Arizona’s Tuscon and Lukesville sectors have seen tens-of-thousands of illegal aliens entering from all over the world in recent weeks, shattering several records.
““Well, it’s the border and the economy and basically getting back to policies that make sense and help Arizona families so they feel secure,” Lake said about the biggest issues facing Arizona.
“People are really concerned about the future. They look back where they were four years ago; our border was secure, we had a great energy policy, our economy was growing. And now it’s just the opposite,” she added.
The poll also found former President Donald Trump — who narrowly lost the state in 2020 after carrying it in 2016 — leading Biden in a hypothetical rematch with 46 percent of the vote. Biden currently trails by five percentage points at 41 percent, while an additional five percent remain undecided.
Keeping with polling trends, eight percent of respondents selected neither Trump nor Biden, representing elevated interest in alternatives. With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. added as an option, Trump’s support drops to 40 percent while Biden remains behind at 35 percent. Kennedy managed to secure 16 percent of the vote while 6 percent remained unsure.
When expanding the ballot to include additional alternatives, including Dr. Cornel West, outgoing Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jill Stein, Trump maintained his 40 percent while Biden dropped further to 32 percent. Kennedy’s support also plunged to nine percent in the expanded field.
“At this point, Republican Candidates have an edge against Democrats in Arizona,” wrote VCreek/AMG owner JD Johannes in the poll’s summary. “Republican candidates in Arizona likely have a solid base of about 37%–40%. The Biden/Democrat base waivers from a high of 41% to a low 30%.”
Johannes did note that Arizona has a high number of self-identified independents, who could be persuaded differently as negative media coverage of Trump increases prior to the 2024 election.