Key Virginia Race Officially Flips As Democrats Brace For Split-Ticket Disaster

Democrats in Virginia are sweating bullets over the growing chance of a split-ticket outcome that could leave them running Richmond with a Republican attorney general still in place — and plenty of headaches to follow.

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger continues to lead Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the governor’s race, but the fight for attorney general has turned into a political minefield after explosive reports surfaced about violent text messages sent by Democratic nominee Jay Jones in 2022.

Since the scandal broke, polls have tightened — and in some cases, flipped. GOP Attorney General Jason Miyares is now edging ahead in a contest that could upend Democrats’ plans to push back against Republicans and the Trump administration.

“I think it’s very possible,” said longtime Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth, when asked about the chances of a split-ticket result. “I don’t know whether Jones has staunched the bleeding.”

“Clearly the issues would be harmful to him in the Richmond suburbs and in the Hampton Roads suburbs, but from what I’m hearing even internally, even inside the Beltway up in [Northern Virginia], they’re very problematic.”

Before the scandal, the race was already tight — Miyares led in fundraising, while Jones held only a razor-thin polling edge. But the text revelations have sent Democrats into panic mode.

A Washington Post/Schar School poll last week found the race dead even at 46% apiece, while a Virginia Commonwealth University survey showed Miyares ahead 45% to 42%. Then, a Quantus Insights poll showed Jones trailing by a whopping 7 points.

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Jones’s best hope now may be riding Spanberger’s coattails. The same VCU poll had her leading by 7 points, and the Post/Schar survey gave her a 12-point advantage.

“Part of the math equation here is that it’s a lot harder to lose on the coattails if your voters are not crossing over,” Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett said. “I think to the extent that there’s anger at Jay, they’re not voting for him.”

Tribbett warned that Miyares faces his own challenge winning over undervoters — those who skip down-ballot contests — while Holsworth said that dynamic could actually give Jones a boost.

“This undervote is going to be fairly sizable,” Holsworth said. “The Post poll said that there’s not a lot of people who are switching their vote from Jones to Miyares, but I think that’s more on the Democratic side. With independents, I think you’re going to see some Spanberger-Miyares votes.”

In Virginia, the attorney general operates independently of the governor, representing state agencies and handling legal battles with the federal government. That separation could throw a wrench into Spanberger’s agenda if Miyares hangs on.

“It definitely slows down the administration,” Tribbett said. “Not always in a bad way, but usually in a bad way.”

It wouldn’t be the first time Virginia has seen divided leadership. Both Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine governed with Republican attorneys general — and found out the hard way what “split government” really means.

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