Leading Election Forecaster Shifts Closely-Watched Senate Race Towards GOP

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday adjusted its rating of Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.” The change moves the contest one category toward greater competitiveness while still indicating a Democratic advantage under Cook’s definitions, in which “Lean” races are competitive but favor one party.

The race features Democrat Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL and NBC Sports broadcaster making her first run for elective office. The seat is open following the retirement of Democrat Senator Tina Smith.

Cook Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor attributed the day’s rating adjustments — including moves in South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats — to the magnified role of individual candidate quality in midterm cycles, which can diverge from broader national trends.

Cook’s race summary expressed skepticism toward some public polling that has shown a tight contest. It noted that Flanagan has only recently increased spending after a competitive Democratic primary, while Tafoya’s background as a longtime television sports reporter provides a distinctive profile.

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Today, The Cook Political Report is moving three Senate races. Two shifts are in Democrats’ direction. One shift is toward Republicans.#SCSen: Likely R to Lean R #MSSen: Solid R to Likely R #MNSen: Likely D to Lean D

Read this from @JessicaTaylor:https://t.co/75ocIS0QtM

— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 20, 2026

Voter concerns over fraud issues in state social services programs associated with the administration of Governor Tim Walz were also cited as points of concern. Taylor argued that these issues may affect Flanagan as lieutenant governor. At the same time, Cook observed that the overall political environment, including economic conditions and the impact of ICE operations in the state, presents challenges for a significant Republican effort in a state that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election.

Public polls in recent weeks have shown the race remaining close relative to Minnesota’s typical federal voting patterns. Examples include a KSTP/SurveyUSA survey placing Flanagan at 45 percent to Tafoya’s 42 percent, a Mason-Dixon poll at 47 percent to 43 percent, and a Rasmussen Reports survey at 48 percent to 45 percent.

Aggregates of recent polls have generally shown Flanagan ahead by roughly 3 to 4 points, with some individual surveys falling within the margin of error. Earlier surveys in September had at times shown narrower margins or a tie.

Tafoya’s support levels have contributed to a tighter contest than many initial expectations for the open seat in a state that has leaned well to the left in recent presidential elections.

Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Norm Coleman’s victory in 2002, when he defeated Walter Mondale, who entered the race after the death of incumbent Paul Wellstone. Coleman lost his 2008 reelection bid to Al Franken by a narrow margin following a prolonged recount.

Democrats have held both Senate seats since that cycle.

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