Legendary Political Analyst Reveals Final Election Prediction: ‘This Race Is Close’

Political analyst Henry Olsen has shared his insights on one of the tightest races in recent memory in a detailed final prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Olsen, a well-known commentator and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, anticipates that former President Donald Trump will secure an Electoral College victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, though he predicts Harris may narrowly take the popular vote.

If accurate, Olsen’s forecast points to a repeat of the Electoral College-popular vote split that has shaped recent elections, most notably in 2000 and 2016. Olsen’s forecast, published as an opinion piece in the New York Post, estimates that Trump will win 297 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed to secure the presidency.

Harris, in his model, falls short with 241 votes despite an anticipated narrow popular vote edge of 49.6% to Trump’s 48.3%. Olsen’s prediction hinges on the distribution of Trump’s voter base, which he argues is particularly well-represented in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In his article, Olsen explained his methodology, which involved analyzing national polling data and comparing partisan turnout among likely voters.

He observed that Harris holds a significant lead among Democrats, with 94% supporting her, while Trump leads Republicans by a similarly strong margin. Among independent voters, the two candidates are almost evenly split, with Harris holding only a slight 2-point lead. With these data points in mind, Olsen predicted that Harris’s slim national lead would likely be insufficient to overcome the structural advantage Trump’s coalition holds in swing states.

Predicted 2024 Electoral College map by Henry Olsen via New York Post

“Legendary Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes used to say there are three things that can happen with a forward pass, and only one of them is good,”  Olsen wrote in his piece, alluding to the risks of calling the race too early or inaccurately. “Predicting elections is like that: You can get it wrong, say it’s too close to call or get it right.”

He acknowledged that unforeseen factors, such as last-minute shifts in turnout, could easily disrupt his calculations. However, he stressed the role of the Electoral College and the specific voter demographics in battleground states, which he believes favor Trump. Olsen noted that polling errors in states like Wisconsin, which traditionally lean Democratic in polls but shift Republican in final results, could further boost Trump’s chances.

Olsen’s analysis also extended to the down-ballot effects of a potential Trump win. In addition to the presidency, he anticipates a strong showing for the GOP in Congress. He projects that Republicans could gain control of the Senate, increasing their seats from 49 to 55. In the House, he predicts a modest but crucial expansion of the Republican majority, with gains of three to seven seats.

Olsen attributed these gains to a trend where Senate candidates often benefit from the success of their party’s presidential candidate in their state. “American national identity is uniquely and inexorably tied to our form of government. Take that away, and we dissolve into a messy and toxic brew of peoples divided by race, religion and ethnicity,” Olsen warned.

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