Longtime Fox News Host Leads Crowded California Gubernatorial Field, Shock Poll Finds

A recent poll from Emerson College found former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, leading California’s crowded primary field. Former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other prominent Republican candidate in the state, trailed close behind in a tie for second, representing a growing polling trend that could prove disastrous for the Democratic Party due to the state’s primary process.

The Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters between February 13 and 14, found Hilton leading with 17 percent of the vote. U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) trailed close behind with 14 percent, making him the leading Democrat in the race in a tie with Bianco, who also received 14 percent.

Additional Democrats rounded out the poll, including former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter at 10 percent and billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer at nine percent. A sizable number of voters — 21 percent — indicated that they remain undecided.

Emerson’s latest survey represented a five percent rise in support for Hilton, who catapulted to the top spot after trailing Hilton in the December edition of the poll.

Steve Hilton speaking with attendees at the American Conservation Coalition’s 2023 Summit at the Salt Lake City Marriott City Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
Photo: Gage Skidmore

Hilton, a British-born political strategist and commentator, previously served as director of strategy for former UK Prime Minister David Cameron from 2005 to 2012. He later relocated to California in 2012, where he taught at Stanford University, co-founded the political crowdfunding platform Crowdpac.

Hilton also hosted the Fox News program “The Next Revolution” until 2023. He launched his gubernatorial bid in April of 2025 and has focused on an affordability, with particular emphasis on housing, homelessness and ending the state’s longtime Democratic Party domination.

The Emerson poll found Hilton slightly edging out Bianco with 38 percent of the vote to the sheriff’s 37 percent among Republican respondents. Hilton also garnered support from 22 percent of independents, the highest of any candidate.

Democrats show no clear leader, with Swalwell at 24 percent, Porter at 17 percent, and Steyer at 15 percent among party respondents.

Washington, DC – July 28, 2022: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) speaks at a news conference at the U.S Capital calling for the immediate release of Asim Khafoor who was arrested and jailed in the UAE.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that the split Republican vote and undecided independents could play a pivotal role in the state’s general election due to current primary structures.

California’s electoral system uses a nonpartisan “jungle” primary format, established by Proposition 14 in 2010. In this setup, all candidates from any party appear on a single ballot during the June 2, 2026, primary.

Voters select one candidate, and the top two advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation. This system can lead to same-party matchups in the general if one party’s vote is consolidated while the other’s is divided.

The Democratic Party field is notably crowded, contributing to vote fragmentation. Announced candidates include Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, each of whom received less than five percent of the vote in the latest Emerson poll.

With over a dozen Democrats vying for support, no single candidate has exceeded 21 percent in recent surveys, allowing Republicans like Hilton and Bianco to gain ground despite California’s Democrat voter registration advantage.

Aggregated polling averages reflect a tight race. The RealClearPolling average currently shows Hilton and Bianco tied for the top spot with 15.5 percent each, while Swalwell trails in second with 12.5 percent. A number of additional recent polls — including an internal from Becerra’s campaign — have found Hilton and Bianco in the top spots.

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