Most Accurate 2020 Pollster Shows Trump Trouncing The Rest Of The GOP Field

A new poll from Tipp Insights — which had some of the nation’s most accurate polling for the 2022 midterm elections — shows former President Trump blowing out the rest of the GOP field, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The online poll, which was conducted from May 3-5, surveyed 703 Democrats or those leaning left, and 469 Republicans and those leaning Republican, asked respondents who their preferred candidate was in the respective primary races.

Keeping with trends seen in other recent polls, former President Trump holds a massive lead with 55% of respondents supporting him. This was up from 47% in April, representing a sizable bump in support despite Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment. Governor DeSantis polled in the teens, garnering support from 17% of GOP respondents, down 23% in April.

Additionally, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy each polled at less than 10%, while Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson each garnered less than 2% of the vote.

As for the Democrats, President Biden maintained support from a plurality of respondents with 39%. His closest competitor was Vermont Senator and two-time presidential candidate Bernie Sanders at 9%, followed by former First Lady Michelle Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris, who each polled at 7%.

2024 National Republican Primary

• Trump — 55% (+8 from April)
• DeSantis — 17% (-6)
• Pence — 6%
• Haley — 4%
• Ramaswamy — 4%
• T. Scott — 2%
• Hutchinson — 1%
• Elder — 1%
• Christie — 0%
• Sununu — 0%

TIPP (A-) | May 3-5 | 469 RVhttps://t.co/oQDgO0gxBc pic.twitter.com/mi5oSItjjP

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 15, 2023

Trump’s bump in the Tipp Insights poll keeps with trends observed in other state and national surveys. According to a recent Kentucky poll conducted by Emerson College, former President Trump held a 39-point lead over DeSantis. In total, Trump gained 17 percentage points in the poll between April and May. Similar trends have been observed in Iowa, North Carolina and Florida, among other states.

The former president is also maintaining a massive lead in the latest Race To The WH delegate forecast. The forecast — which analyzes real-time polling and election data — has Trump leading with 1,616 delegates to 837 for DeSantis. In 2024, there are an estimated 2,467 delegates: 2,363 pledged delegates and 104 unpledged delegates, according to Ballotpedia. In order to win the nomination, a candidate must receive a majority of delegates, an estimated 1,234 delegates.