Politics

NEW: 2024’s Top Pollster Issues Update On Special Election That Could Affect Balance Of Power In House

Published

4 days ago

March 28, 2025

The top pollster of the 2024 cycle is breaking down just how razor-thin Republicans’ majority is in the U.S. House.

With a four-vote majority and four vacancies, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can ill afford to lose more than one or two votes while still passing legislation approved by a wide ideological array of Republican lawmakers. He got some relief on Thursday when the Trump administration announced that Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) had withdrawn her nomination to become the nation’s U.N. ambassador, a loss which would have left Johnson in an almost untenable position.

At the same time, congressional vacancies—even in districts carried heavily by President Donald Trump last year—are no surefire victories for the GOP. Quantus Insights illustrated the electoral landscape when it released new figures showing that the special election to replace former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) looks like it will be a nail-biter.

Voters in the state’s 6th Congressional District go to the polls on April 1st. Although siding with Trump by a 30+ point margin in 2024, the electorate is not nearly as warm to state Sen. Randy Fine, the Republican nominee whose fate is coming down to the wire.

Fine currently leads Democratic candidate Josh Weil by 6.6% in an R+14 district, a troubling sign that is causing the GOP to mount an all-out effort to push its voters out in the coming days. President Trump appeared for a tele-rally on Thursday evening on behalf of Fine, where he urged voters to bring their family and friends out for the Republican.

Weil, a publish school teacher with deep union ties, has raised $10 million to Fine’s $1 million, a stark contrast that has helped level the playing field. If turnout remains in the 20-25% range, Fine is expected to prevail by less than 10 points.

Gov. Ron DeSantis hinted at the apprehension Republicans are feeling during a press conference on Thursday.

“They’re going to try to lay that at the feet of President Trump,” DeSantis told ABC News about the possibility of a GOP loss in FL-06. “That is not a reflection of President Trump. It’s a reflection of the specific candidate running in that race. And President Trump, if he were on the ballot in this special election, he would win by 30 points, no question.”

Steve Bannon, the former Trump advisor, said on his podcast this week, “Trump won that district by 30 points in November. … We have a candidate that I don’t think is winning. That’s an issue.”

Both the Fine campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee remain bullish heading into Tuesday.

“As I sit in my [state] Senate office for the last time, I want to thank the voters who have elected me seven times to represent them in Tallahassee. It’s been a profound honor, and I can’t wait to do it again,” Fine wrote on X.

“Randy Fine is going to be a member of Congress. Everything else is just noise,” Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the NRCC, told ABC News.