New 2030 Census Projection Dooms Democrat Party

Blue states are staring down a political wake-up call as new census projections suggest Democratic strongholds are on track to lose congressional power to Republican-led states after 2030.

A census analysis released Tuesday projects that New York and California alone could lose a combined six House seats, while red-state rivals Texas and Florida stand to gain eight. The estimates are based on 2025 population trends forecast by Jonathan Cervas of Carnegie Mellon University and shared by Redistricting Network.

The numbers highlight a long, slow slide for New York, which has been shedding congressional seats for decades.

“This is not good news for New York or California,” said Jeff Wice, director of the New York Elections, Census, and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School, according to the New York Post.

Other Democratic-leaning states are also projected to shrink. Illinois, Rhode Island and Oregon could each lose one to two seats under the next round of reapportionment. Meanwhile, Republican-leaning states such as Utah and Idaho are expected to notch modest gains.

If the projections hold, the shift would also reshape the Electoral College map, potentially making national victories even tougher for Democrats in future presidential races.

Under the forecast, New York’s House delegation would fall to 24 seats, continuing a sharp decline from its peak of 45 seats in the 1940s. California, long the largest congressional delegation in the country, could drop to 48 seats.

Texas is projected to grow from 38 to 42 House seats, while Florida could jump from 28 to 32. Since 2020, Texas has added roughly 2.5 million residents and Florida about 2 million, placing both states among the fastest-growing in the nation by raw population.

Wice also warned that blue states could face even steeper losses if Republicans succeed in adding a citizenship question to the census under President Donald Trump. While the Constitution requires counting all residents regardless of status, questions about legal status could discourage illegal immigrants from responding, potentially altering population totals and political representation.

The projections underscore a broader demographic shift that has been unfolding for years: Americans continue to flee high-tax, high-regulation blue states for red states offering lower costs of living, lighter regulation and stronger job growth. If those trends continue, the political balance of power in Washington may tilt even further in the GOP’s favor after the next census.

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