Politics
NEW: Candidates Nearly Tied In Closely Watched NJ Gubernatorial Race, Top Pollster Finds
Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill are statistically tied just days ahead of Election Day, according to a new poll from Atlas Intel, one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 presidential election.
The poll, released Saturday found Sherrill leading by less than one percentage point, which is within the margin of error as the heated campaign cycle heads towards the final hours. In total, Atlas Intel found Sherrill leading with just 50.2 percent of the vote to Ciattarelli’s 49.3 percent, the survey’s closest margin yet.
Atlas Intel further found that both President Donald Trump and current Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, are underwater in terms of approval ratings. For President Trump, 47 percent of respondents expressed a positive opinion while 52 percent said the opposite, a decent result considering the state’s blue partisan lean.
Just 43 percent of respondents expressed a positive opinion of Governor Murphy, while 53 percent expressed a negative opinion.
In terms of individual issues, a whopping 66 percent of respondents listed cost of living and inflation as a top issue. High taxes were listed as a priority by a little more than a third of those surveyed, followed by overall economic health and the jobs market at 21 percent. Outside economic issues, 21 percent of respondents listed immigration and a chief concern, followed by an almost identical number listing education.
Atlas Poll
2025 New Jersey Gubernatorial Election
The New Jersey governor race is close. The scenario below shows Mikie Sherrill (D) leading Jack Ciattarelli (R ) by only 0.9pp – a difference within the margin of error. pic.twitter.com/JSmFnHoO6z
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 1, 2025
The latest survey from Atlas Intel follows a string of polls indicating a tight race. An Emerson College survey released Thursday found Sherrill leading with 50 percent of the vote to Ciattaralli’s 48 percent, while an October 29 survey from Quantus Insights found Sherrill leading by a little less than three percentage points, well within the margin of error.
The new poll has Ciattarelli running away among Trump 2024 voters, 99 percent of whom said they will be backing his campaign. He has also managed to peel away a small number of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris, three percent of whom indicated that they have switched.
With less than 48 hours until Election Day, New Jersey has been the site of the most closely watched statewide election in the off-year cycle.
Ciattarelli narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021 despite polling averages predicting a double-digit win for the Democrat. While still dominated by Democrats, the Garden State has since seen a significant shift to the right in terms of voter registration.
In 2020, Democrats accounted for 38 percent of registered voters in New Jersey while Republicans comprised just 22 percent of the electorate. Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, the Republican share of the electorate had climbed to 24 percent, cutting into the share of both Democrat and unaffiliated voters in the state.
New Jersey ultimately shocked election analysts this past November, when the state experienced one of the widest rightward shifts in the country. Former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Trump by just under six percentage points in the state, securing 51.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45.9 percent. For comparison, President Biden carried New Jersey with 57.3 percent of the vote in 2020, while just 41.4 percent voted for Trump.
