Politics
NEW: Democrats Tracking For Blowout Loss In Blue State Senate Race
Democrats may be in for a wake-up call in New Hampshire as early polling suggests Republicans could easily win a Senate seat in the blue state. Former Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH) by a sizable 53% to 44% margin in a hypothetical 2026 Senate race, according to a newly released poll.
While neither Sununu nor Pappas has formally declared their candidacy, both are expected to run, and the numbers show an early advantage for the GOP in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. If these figures hold, it would represent a major warning sign for Democrats heading into a crucial election year.
Sununu’s early lead is powered by overwhelming Republican support (94%), a commanding performance among independents (52%-44%), and a significant advantage with male voters (59%-39%) according to Quantus Insights. Even more troubling for Democrats, Sununu is holding his own with women voters, splitting the vote at 48%.
Another critical factor in Sununu’s strength is his appeal to non-college voters, where he holds a 58% lead. This demographic has played a growing role in shaping New Hampshire elections, particularly in working-class areas that have drifted rightward in recent years.
NEW POLL: NEW HAMPSHIRE SENTATE RACE
New Hampshire 2026 Senate Race
Sununu: 53%
Pappas: 44%
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Donald Trump State Approval
44% approval
Neither Candidate Has Announced, But Our Early Polling Suggests a Strong Start for the GOP in the New… pic.twitter.com/gOU4oX08Lk
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) March 20, 2025
The numbers show a growing trend of Republican gains in the state. While former President Joe Biden carried New Hampshire by over seven points in 2020, President Donald Trump cut that margin to just 2.8 points against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.
If that trend continues, it could spell trouble for Democrats trying to hold onto their Senate majority.
Despite Sununu’s early lead, Democrats are not out of the fight. Pappas remains a well-known figure in New Hampshire politics, having won multiple terms in the state’s First Congressional District, a swing seat that often flips between parties.
But he will need to overcome some significant hurdles.
Exeter, N.H., USA — Jan. 21, 2024: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu speaks at a campaign rally for Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.
The national mood in 2026 remains uncertain. President Trump holds a 43.8% approval rating in New Hampshire, with 48.5% disapproving.
While he has strong Republican support (83% approval), he remains underwater with independents (37% approve, 54% disapprove), a key voting bloc.
If national Democratic leaders struggle in 2026, Pappas may have difficulty distancing himself from the party’s broader challenges. Regardless, if Sununu maintains his popularity and crossover appeal, it will force Democrats to play defense in a state that has long been considered safe for their party.
Chris Pappas 2016
Democrats have consistently won New Hampshire Senate races over the past two decades, but Sununu’s strong position suggests the political map may be shifting. If Republicans can flip the seat, it would represent a major blow to Democrats’ efforts to hold their Senate majority.
With nearly two years to go until the election, both parties will be watching closely to see if these early trends hold. However, Democrats can no longer take New Hampshire for granted.
