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NEW: Early Indicators Show Surprise Red Shift In Crucial Gubernatorial Races

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2 months ago

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Early voting and survey data are beginning to show subtle but meaningful shifts in the political landscape as two high-stakes gubernatorial contests approach. While Democrats maintain advantages in traditional mail-in participation, Republicans are narrowing gaps and overperforming in critical turnout metrics, raising the possibility of unexpected red gains.

New figures from Quantus Insights show a notable decline in the Democratic margin among mail voters in New Jersey compared with last year’s cycle. On Day 2 of mail-ballot returns, Democrats account for 62% of ballots, down from 66% in 2024. Republicans climbed slightly to 25%, up from 19% a year ago, while third-party and independent returns slipped modestly to 13%.

The most telling figure is the margin: Democrats now lead Republicans in mail returns by 37 points, compared with a 47-point advantage at the same stage in 2024. Though still a wide lead, the movement represents a 10-point narrowing in just one year, and a potential sign of things to come.

For a state where Democrats have historically relied heavily on early voting to build large margins, any slippage—even at the margins—carries significant strategic implications. If Republicans continue to improve their share of early returns, they could enter Election Day in a stronger position than expected, particularly in competitive down-ballot races.

Meanwhile, in Virginia, Quantus Insights identified a turnout edge for Republicans in areas that President Donald Trump carried. As of September 23, Trump-won counties were out-turning Harris-won counties by about 2.5 points (61.21% vs. 58.67%).

While the margin may appear modest, turnout disparities can often compound over the course of an election cycle, particularly in off-year gubernatorial races where enthusiasm and mobilization play oversized roles. If Republicans sustain or expand this edge, it could prove decisive in close contests, as Virginia remains a state with both deep blue urban cores and wide swaths of conservative countryside.

The emerging state-level data dovetails with national survey findings released by Quantus Insights on September 22. Their poll placed President Trump’s approval at 48.2% with disapproval at 49.7%—a net improvement of 1.5 points since late August. While hardly a dramatic surge, in an era of hardened partisan lines, even small movements carry weight.

Notably, the uptick stems less from new supporters than from a softening of opposition. Some voters appear to be stepping out of the disapproval camp, signaling fatigue with constant political conflict or a reassessment of the administration’s record.

Equally important, the poll found Republican self-identification ticking upward to 36%, compared with 31% for Democrats and 33% for Independents. Analysts tie part of that rise to the aftermath of the assassination of Charlie Kirk earlier this month, an event that has sharpened Republican identity and galvanized the base.

Together, these numbers suggest an electorate in flux. Democrats still hold institutional advantages in mail voting, but the margin is narrowing. Republicans are not only holding their base but also showing organizational gains in turnout across multiple states. For Democrats, the challenge will be to stop the bleeding and shore up their traditional early-vote edge. For Republicans, the path forward lies in sustaining enthusiasm and translating turnout edges into Election Day victories.

The broader national mood adds another wrinkle. With 54.3% of Americans telling Quantus they believe the country is on the “wrong track,” discontent may cut against incumbents and the party seen as stewarding the status quo. That sentiment could help Republicans frame gubernatorial contests not just as local fights, but as referenda on leadership in Washington.

None of these data points amounts to a wave, but they do hint at a subtle red shift in the electorate. New Jersey’s Democratic edge is smaller than before, Virginia’s turnout advantage favors Republicans, and national numbers suggest GOP confidence is stabilizing after a turbulent summer.

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