NEW: GOP Candidate Surges In Closely-Watched Gubernatorial Race

Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee for governor of New Jersey, released an internal poll Sunday showing his campaign in a neck-and-neck race with U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), the Democrat nominee.

The poll found Ciattarelli leading 46 percent-45 percent in a two-way race, a figure that includes a 21-point lead among voters not registered with either major party. It is the first publicly released poll to show Ciattarelli in the lead as the race heads towards the final stretch.

National Research, a New Jersey-based firm founded by Adam Geller, conducted the poll. The firm surveyed 600 likely voters from September 16-18 and released the results to the New Jersey Globe.

Internal polls are generally taken with a grain of salt by political pundits, as campaigns tend to release surveys and information that will be beneficial. A recent poll from Quantus Insights found Sherrill leading by 10, while a Quinnipiac survey released last week found Sherrill ahead by eight.

Sherrill has enjoyed a comfortable lead in polling averages for the last several months. According to the current RealClearPolitics polling average, Sherrill currently holds a lead of +8.8 percentage points.

The New Jersey gubernatorial race is one of the most closely watched of the off-year cycle, however, as Republicans are seeking to capitalize on massive gains in the 2024 presidential election.

In 2020, Democrats accounted for 38 percent of registered voters in New Jersey while Republicans comprised 22 percent of the electorate. Ahead of the 2024 Election between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Republican share of the electorate had climbed to 24 percent, cutting into the share of both Democrat and unaffiliated voters in the state.

New Jersey ultimately shocked election analysts this past November, when the state experienced one of the widest rightward shifts in the country. Former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Trump by just under six percentage points in the state, securing 51.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45.9 percent.  For comparison, President Biden carried New Jersey with 57.3 percent of the vote in 2020, while just 41.4 percent voted for Trump.

The last gubernatorial race in New Jersey was also defined by a massive polling miss, further raising GOP hopes in the Garden State.

A National Research survey conducted in June of 2021 found incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy, who is set to be term-limited, leading Ciattarelli by 12 percentage points. Murphy enjoyed a massive polling advantage leading up to Election Day, though the race ended up being razor close despite a massive fundraising advantage for the Democrat incumbent.

Murphy ultimately won by roughly three percentage points after polling averages projected a double-digit victory.