Politics

NEW: GOP Candidate Surges In Final Stretch, Sits At Statistical Tie In Crucial Race

Published

3 days ago

March 31, 2025

A critical Supreme Court race in Wisconsin has suddenly become a dead heat, with a new poll showing GOP-backed Judge Brad Schimel pulling into a statistical tie just hours before voters hit the polls.

The latest numbers from a joint survey conducted by Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage reveal Schimel trailing Judge Susan Crawford by a razor-thin 51% to 49% margin—well within the poll’s 2.9% margin of error. The poll sampled 1,083 likely voters, making clear that turnout will be the deciding factor in a race that could dramatically reshape Wisconsin’s political and legal landscape.

“These off-cycle special election races always depend on turnout,” said Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage and Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group. “Among respondents who said they already have voted, Susan Crawford led by a 55%-45% margin.”

“Among all voters who said they were ‘likely to vote,’ Brad Schimel led by 53%-47%. While the race is nonpartisan, Crawford has the backing of Democrats and Schimel is backed by Republicans, including President Trump and Elon Musk.”

Brad Schimel, 44th Attorney General of Wisconsin

Crawford has emerged as the favorite of national Democrats, with high-profile endorsements from former President Barack Obama and pocketed donors like Democrat Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and George Soros pouring money into her campaign.

Schimel, meanwhile, has the full backing of conservatives. A former Wisconsin Attorney General and current Waukesha County judge, he’s been endorsed by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Musk has reportedly contributed over $20 million to support Schimel according to The Financial Times.

Judge Susan Crawford

The outcome of Tuesday’s vote could tip the ideological balance of the state’s high court, which will soon weigh in on pivotal cases—most notably, a legal challenge to Wisconsin’s 1849 abortion ban. The court’s decisions may also impact future legislative maps and the power struggle between state and federal authorities.

With spending nearing an eye-popping $100 million, this race is now the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history—a figure that reflects the growing nationalization of what used to be relatively low-profile contests.

Wisconsin Madison State Capital Building

Schimel told WISN12 that the key to victory lies in voter participation: “It’s a turnout race,” he said. “It’s going back to Nov. 5 and getting conservative voters to understand why this is important.”

“If we get 60% of the people who voted for President Trump to come out April 1 and vote for me, in all likelihood that means I win.”

Schimel said he spoke with both former President Trump and Elon Musk before Trump officially endorsed him. “He said, ‘Hello, Brad, it’s your favorite president,’” Schimel recalled.

“And then we had a bit of a conversation, and he talked about activist judges. He’s very frustrated with them right now, as I think everybody knows. He put Elon Musk on for a little while. That was the first time I ever spoke with Elon Musk.”

“So much is at stake,” Schimel added. “We have to put the court back in its proper role where it’s not making the law, it’s not going through a political agenda. It is applying the law the way the Legislature writes it.”