NEW: GOP Now Favored In Two Additional House Races

California’s 45th Congressional District race has shifted dramatically as late-counted ballots show incumbent Republican Michelle Steel closing the gap against Democratic challenger Derek Tran. That race, along with a closely-contested showdown in California’s 13th District, remains uncalled, but Republicans are now cautiously optimistic about their prospects of holding these key House seats.

Steel, who had led the race for most of the ballot-counting period, briefly lost her lead to Tran following late mail-in ballot drops. However, election analysts suggest that the remaining votes — particularly conditional voter registrations (CVRs) and certain provisional ballots — are likely to favor Steel.

“CVRs (Conditional voter registrations) are California’s version of same-day registrations,” election analyst Michael Pruser noted on social media. “Because they must be done in person before or on election day, they’re more Republican than mail or drop box ballots.”

Two California house races remain uncalled, and it will be a minute before we know who wins.

🔴CA-13: Lean John Duarte
⚫CA-45: Toss Up

There has been no change from last week’s assessment, but both races have shifted ever so slightly toward Republicans.

John Duarte (CA-13)… pic.twitter.com/hyJyOkgmvl

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) November 19, 2024

The latest tallies put Tran ahead by a razor-thin margin of 102 votes, with roughly 10,000 ballots left to count in Orange County — the heart of the battleground district. Orange County is expected to release another small batch of results tonight, which could give a clearer picture of Steel’s chances.

While Steel remains locked in this tight contest, the district’s dynamics — and the composition of outstanding ballots — appear to be trending in her favor. About 56% of remaining ballots in the district are CVRs and provisionals, which could provide Steel the critical net gain she needs to reclaim the lead according to Pruser.

Meanwhile, in California’s 13th District, Republican incumbent John Duarte holds a narrow lead over Adam Gray by approximately 2,000 votes. With around 28,000 votes yet to be counted, primarily in Stanislaus and Merced counties, an update on the ballot processing is expected by Tuesday night.

“It’s exciting and we’ll let every vote get counted,” Duarte told KCRA 3 in an interview on Monday. He was optimistic about the shift in voter sentiment in his district, noting that President-elect Donald Trump managed to turn Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties from Democratic to Republican.

“Hopefully we’ll pull through again,” he added. On the same day, Gray also spoke to KCRA 3. “I think people are looking for change,” he said. “We ran a campaign to present a change candidate, not more of the same nonsense that’s been going on and I remain hopeful we’re going to come out victorious.”

Duarte and Gray are braced for a drawn-out counting process, having experienced a similar scenario in 2022. That year, they were separated by just 564 votes and both attended the new member orientation in Washington D.C. despite the close margins.

This comes as Republicans look to expand their slim majority in the House; holding these contested California districts is seen as essential for maintaining momentum heading into 2025. Currently, the GOP controls 218 seats in comparison to the 212 held by Democrats. In California, the delegation currently includes 41 Democrats and 9 Republicans.

With the December 1 deadline for curing ballots still weeks away, both parties are focused on maximizing their turnout efforts in these last, decisive days. For now, CA-45 remains a toss-up, but GOP hopes are riding high.

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