Politics
NEW: GOP On Verge Of Flipping Two Longtime Blue Counties
According to voter registration data collected by Florida’s Voice, Republicans in the Sunshine State now hold a voter registration lead of 1.38 million, an all-time high. The GOP is also on the verge of flipping two historically Democrat-controlled counties as Florida’s historic rightward trend continues.
As of the latest report, Republicans have 5.5 million registered voters in the state while Democrats have an estimated 4.2 million. In the month of September, Republican registrations largely flatlined, though Democrats lost an astonishing 30,000 voters, Florida’s Voice found.
“It’s typical for parties to lose voters after a major election, especially due to counties and the state cleaning up the rolls,” Florida’s Voice contributor Eric Daugherty noted. “But Democrats are plunging, losing thousands per month.”
The current trend suggests that the GOP advantage in the state is expected to rise past 1.4 million in the coming months.
The surge comes as Florida gears up for a number of important races, including for governor, as current officeholder Ron DeSantis is set to be termed out after two wildly impactful terms. A number of key statewide elections will also take place in 2026, as well as a race for U.S. Senate, where interim Senator Ashley Moody will be seeking a full term after she was nominated to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this year.
At the county level, Republican gains have expanded in the Miami-Dade metro area, which has now swelled to R+3. The historic shift is notable given the region’s historic status as a blue stronghold.
Republicans are also on the verge of flipping two additional populous, historically blue counties as of the latest analysis. Democrat advantage in Palm Beach County has fallen below two points, placing it well within flip territory ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
The margin in Duval County, which encompasses Jacksonville, plunged even further to D+0.8. Democrats managed to flip the Jacksonville mayoral office in 2023, setting up what is already projecting to be a close, and expensive race in 2027.
Republicans are also gaining ground in the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, as the advantage in Hillsborough County has swelled to R+2.3. The lead is even wider in neighboring Pinellas County, where Republicans hold a nearly eight-point lead.
