NEW: GOP Surges In Blue State Senate Race, Dems Blindsided

A new survey of Minnesota voters shows a close contest in the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican nominee Michele Tafoya.

The poll was conducted by TechnoMetrica (TIPP) for the League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2, 2026. It surveyed 1,494 registered voters statewide, including a subsample of 1,201 likely voters. The credibility interval for likely voters is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.

On a multi-candidate ballot that included independent Marisa Simonetti, Flanagan received 40 percent support while Tafoya trailed close behind at 38 percent. Simonetti registered four percent, while other candidates received three percent of the vote. An additional 14 percent of respondents remained undecided.

The two-point gap between Flanagan and Tafoya falls inside the poll’s margin of error. A two-way matchup listed by RealClearPolitics from the same survey showed Flanagan at 44 percent and Tafoya at 42 percent.

POLL: Should Ilhan Omar Be Deported If Found Guilty Of Immigration Fraud?

🚨 NEW MINNESOTA US SENATE poll

🔵 Peggy Flanagan: 44% (+2)
🔴 Michele Tafoya: 42%

The woman on the left does NOT have any place in the US Senate!

Wake up and stop electing people who cater to the 3rd world! Minnesota is a blue state so it would take a LOT for the Democrat to… pic.twitter.com/eO861N9GH7

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 8, 2026

The survey also measured other attitudes. President Donald Trump’s job approval stood at 36 percent, with 58 percent disapproving. Governor Tim Walz is also underwater, with 42 percent of respondents approving of his job performance and 46 percent disapproving. Among respondents without a college degree, Walz’s net rating was minus 14 points.

For U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, her favorability in the state was registered at just 28 percent. An additional 33 percent of respondents said Somali immigration had made Minnesota better. Seventy-seven percent said Christian migrants assimilate well, compared with 39 percent who said the same of Muslim migrants.

Earlier public polls in the general-election matchup included a KSTP/SurveyUSA survey of 661 likely voters conducted August 13–17 that showed Flanagan at 46 percent and Tafoya at 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided. An Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters from February 6–8 had Flanagan at 47 percent and Tafoya at 41 percent.

Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, won the Republican primary in August. Flanagan, who has served as lieutenant governor since 2019, won the Democratic primary the same month after Senator Tina Smith announced she would not seek re-election.

The RealClearPolitics polling average for the race, which covers surveys from February 6 through September 2, stands at Flanagan 45.7 percent and Tafoya 41.3 percent, a Flanagan lead of 4.4 points. RealClearPolitics currently rates the contest Leans Democratic.

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