Politics
NEW: Stefanik Trails Hochul By Just Six Points In Hypothetical 2026 Showdown
A hypothetical matchup between New York Governor Kathy Hochul and MAGA Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) shows how imperiled the Democrat’s chances for reelection have become in a state where support for President Donald Trump has dramatically grown since she first took office.
In a head-to-head matchup, Hochul leads Stefanik by just 6 points among likely voters in a GOP-affiliated poll that tests the waters for the 2026 election. Republicans are desperately hoping that Stefanik or fellow Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), both popular figures within the state party, launch a bid for the corner office.
Results show Stefanik receiving 44% of support among New York Republicans, putting her far ahead of 7% for Lawler, who represents parts of the lower Hudson Valley, and 5% for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. The remaining 44% told Republican pollster Landon Wall they are undecided about the race.
Adding to Stefanik’s aura is a stellar net favorable rating of +47 among Republicans, with just 9% of party faithful holding an unfavorable opinion of her. Compare that to two-thirds of Republicans not knowing who Lawler is, and an even greater number lacking awareness about Blakeman.
Stefanik, 40, has represented New York’s 21st Congressional District since 2014, a sprawling northern portion of the state that borders Canada.
She was tapped by Trump in January to serve as ambassador to the United Nations, a posting that was torpedoed after U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) made clear that he could not afford to lose her vote amid a contentious budget battle and multiple vacancies. In March, Stefanik announced that she was withdrawing her name from consideration, leaving observers in the dark about what her next move would be.
The rising star has drawn high praise from the president himself, who wrote on Truth Social recently, “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!” and suggested he would back her bid for governor if she chooses to run.
In a separate, larger poll of 600 likely New York voters, Hochul leads Stefanik 46% to 40%, a gap that could easily be changed with a deluge of money and advertising invested into the race. She is similarly endangered by Lawler and Blakeman, who sit at seven- and eight-point deficits, respectively, a sign that even widely unrecognized alternatives to the sitting governor are producing strong showings.
“Should Congresswoman Elise Stefanik choose to enter the race for governor, she would begin the Republican primary in a dominant position and offer the GOP its strongest opportunity to defeat Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 general election,” Wall, the pollster, told the NY Post.
In 2022, Hochul defeated Lee Zeldin, now the U.S. Secretary for the Environmental Protection Agency, by 6 points, 53% to 47%.
Today, 61% of poll respondents say they would prefer “someone new” to run in Hochul’s place.
“Across all tested matchups, Hochul fails to reach 47% support—a warning sign for an incumbent in a blue state,” Wall said.
The poll also claims that the Democratic governor is badly underwater with voters, with 36% approving of the job she’s doing while 55% disapprove.
The GOP poll carries a 4% margin of error.
