Politics
NEW: Poll Shows Jaw-Dropping Shift Among Young Americans
A new survey from the Yale Youth Poll has revealed a stunning generational divide in American politics — and a particularly brutal blow for former Vice President Kamala Harris among the youngest male voters.
According to the poll, conducted in early April and released this week, 18–21 year-old men now hold a net positive favorability toward President Donald Trump (+7), while Harris has plummeted to a staggering negative favorability of -48. That’s a 55-point gap between the two political figures, a number almost unheard of in modern polling.
The poll, conducted by an undergraduate-led research project at Yale University, surveyed 4,100 registered voters, including an oversample of 2,025 voters aged 18–29. It measured attitudes on a wide range of issues from immigration to free speech, and included various message tests to assess how voters respond to different political framings.
But the most striking revelation came in the breakdown by age. While voters aged 22–29 favored Democrats by 6.4 points on the generic congressional ballot, those aged 18–21 went the other direction — backing Republicans by a double-digit margin of 11.7 points. That represents a significant generational rift within Gen Z itself.
New Haven, CT, USA August 14, Connecticut Hall is one of the oldest buildings on the campus of Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut
Political analysts are taking note. And it isn’t just the favorability scores. On nearly every cultural flashpoint tested in the survey, 18–21 year-olds held more conservative views than their slightly older peers.
They were more skeptical of gender transition treatments for teens, more supportive of standardized testing in college admissions, and more likely to back harsh sentencing policies to reduce crime. While a slim majority of all voters opposed transition treatment for teens 13–17, younger men were particularly opposed.
Yet, the broader 18–29 demographic still leaned left on several issues. They overwhelmingly opposed deporting international students for protesting the war in Gaza, showed stronger support for legal immigration, and were more open to progressive tax hikes — particularly on the wealthy and large university endowments.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Democratic National Convention. 22.08.2024. Chicago, USA.
Harris’s poor standing with young male voters may stem from several factors: her association with the Biden administration, her role in controversial culture war issues, or her repeated media appearances that have drawn criticism for being out of touch. Whatever the reason, the data shows that she is struggling mightily with the very demographic Democrats have long counted on for the future.
The poll also tested hypothetical 2028 matchups, revealing Kamala Harris remains the frontrunner among Democratic primary voters — though not without competition. Meanwhile, Trump continues to dominate among Republicans, especially when included in the primary field.
Over the past several election cycles, Democrats have enjoyed a strong edge with Gen Z voters overall — particularly young women and minorities — but cracks have begun to emerge among young men, especially white and Hispanic males without college degrees.
Polling over the past two years has shown that young men are becoming less likely to identify with the Democratic Party, even as they remain left-leaning on certain cultural issues like marijuana legalization and tech regulation. Meanwhile, figures like Trump — and to some extent Elon Musk — have found traction among young men with messages centered around economic disruption, skepticism of elite institutions, and a more confrontational, anti-woke style.
If the numbers among younger men hold — or even worsen for Democrats — it could spell serious trouble in 2026 and beyond.
