New Poll Shows LA Mayoral Race Locked In Statistical Tie

A new UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll shows Mayor Karen Bass, City Councilmember Nithya Raman and reality TV star Spencer Pratt packed into a razor-thin three-way race ahead of the June primary, a late squeeze that’s turning the finish into a turnout fight.

The survey puts Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%, all within the margin of error, with no clear front-runner. If those numbers hold, the scramble for the top two spots could come down to which campaign gets its voters to actually show up.

The tightening marks a shift from earlier polling that had Bass sitting on a more comfortable lead. Now, the city’s mood,  frustrated over public safety, homelessness and the basic condition of streets and services, is showing up in the numbers as voters shop for alternatives.

The poll also suggests the pool of undecided voters is shrinking fast. The Berkeley survey shows undecideds down to 10%, compared with 26% in March, meaning fewer people are left to persuade and more of the work is in mobilizing supporters.

According to the survey’s trendline, Bass’ support stayed largely steady while Raman and Pratt each climbed about eight points since March, a sign challengers are consolidating voters who want change at City Hall.

Bass has been endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris. Spencer Pratt, a registered Republican running as an independent, has been pushing a disruption message and leaning on name recognition from television. Raman, a progressive councilmember, is pitching herself as the Democrat who can beat Bass without handing the race to an outsider.

Even with the public polling tightening, prediction markets still show Bass as the favorite. Polymarket put Bass at about 71%, with Kalshi near 69%, both ahead of Pratt and Raman.

RELATED: NEW: Spencer Pratt Accuses Karen Bass Of Violating Election Law

Bass campaign adviser Doug Herman argued the mayor remains in front as voting nears.

“Everyone knew this would be a close race, and it shows Karen Bass in the lead heading into Tuesday,” Herman said in an emailed statement on Thursday.

“It’s a choice between a Mayor who reduced homelessness and hired more officers, a Councilwoman who voted repeatedly to allow encampments near schools and to shrink LAPD, or a reality TV villain. We will win.”

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Other polling has also shown movement. An Emerson College poll earlier in May had Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22% and Raman at 19%, suggesting Pratt’s support has held while Raman has surged late.

Los Angeles uses a top-two system: If no one clears 50% in the June 2 primary, the top two finishers advance to a November runoff. With the latest poll showing the leaders separated by single digits, the second slot is wide open,  and so is the race.

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