New Survey Reveals Frontrunner In Key GOP Senate Primary

Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson enters Election Day as the frontrunner in Alabama’s Republican Senate primary, according to a new Quantus Insights poll that shows him leading both the initial ballot and a potential runoff.

The survey, conducted May 15-17 among 680 likely Republican primary voters, found Hudson leading the field with 35.8%. Rep. Barry Moore came in second at 26.9%, while Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall trailed at 13.5%. Another 18.1% of voters said they remain undecided heading into Tuesday’s primary.

The numbers suggest the race has begun to solidify after months of volatility in the crowded GOP contest to replace outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who opted to run for governor rather than seek reelection.

Quantus Insights also tested a hypothetical runoff between Hudson and Moore, with Hudson holding a sizable 48.1% to 32.5% advantage. Another 19.4% of voters said they were undecided in the head-to-head matchup.

The poll indicates Hudson’s support extends beyond a simple plurality in a fractured field and could make him the favorite if no candidate clears Alabama’s 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff.

Moore still demonstrated strong regional support, particularly in Alabama’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.

In Alabama’s 2nd District, Moore led the first-choice ballot with 53.3%, while Hudson posted 23%. In a runoff scenario, Moore expanded that lead to 55.9% compared to Hudson’s 27.2%.

Moore also led Hudson in the 1st District runoff test by a 56.5% to 28.9% margin, highlighting the congressman’s strength in his home base along the Gulf Coast and southeast Alabama.

Still, Hudson showed broader statewide appeal across multiple voter demographics.

According to the poll, Hudson led among both men and women, rural and suburban voters, and Republicans aged 30 to 64. His strongest performance came among voters ages 30 to 44, where he received 54% support. He also posted 46.5% support among voters ages 45 to 64.

Moore’s best demographic was voters 65 and older, where he led Hudson 31.7% to 25.4%. That voting bloc remains critical in Alabama Republican politics, with voters 65 and older making up 50% of the modeled GOP primary electorate in the survey.

Marshall’s path appeared considerably narrower.

The attorney general drew 13.5% support on the first ballot and failed to overtake Moore in a separate runoff test. In a hypothetical Moore-Marshall runoff, Moore led 39.9% to 30.1%, while another 30.1% remained undecided.

The poll also found several pockets of uncertainty that could still influence the final margin.

Women were more undecided than men on the initial ballot, 23.5% to 13%. Voters ages 18 to 29 registered the highest uncertainty level, with 33% undecided. Urban voters also showed a large undecided share at 29.1%, higher than rural, suburban, or small-town voters.

Quantus Insights said the survey was weighted to reflect a likely Alabama Republican primary electorate. The poll carried an effective sample size of 651 and a weighted margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.8%.

The survey’s design effect measured 1.04, indicating what pollsters described as only a modest loss of precision from weighting adjustments.

With Election Day now underway, the biggest remaining question is whether undecided voters break heavily enough against Hudson to disrupt the current trajectory of the race. At this stage, the data suggests Hudson holds the clearest path forward.