New Poll Spells Trouble For Karen Bass As Voters Turn Sour Ahead of LA Primary

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is heading into the June primary with a lead on paper—but a new poll suggests her political footing may be far shakier than it appears.

Bass leads the crowded field with 25% support. City Councilmember Nithya Raman follows at 17%, while media personality Spencer Pratt pulls in 14%. Roughly a quarter of voters remain undecided, underscoring how fluid the race still is just weeks before ballots are cast, according to a survey conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times,

But the topline number masking Bass’ lead tells a more troubling story. The poll found that 56% of likely voters view the incumbent mayor unfavorably, compared to just 31% who see her in a positive light—a deficit that political observers say could become a major liability.

Dan Schnur, a veteran political analyst affiliated with USC, UC Berkeley and Pepperdine, didn’t mince words in his assessment.

“That she’s having this much trouble against this field, against such a little-known field of opponents, bodes very, very poorly for her,” Schnur said to The Times, describing the numbers as “borderline catastrophic.”

The warning signs come as Bass faces mounting criticism over her handling of key issues, most notably the devastating Palisades wildfire that ignited in January 2025. The blaze killed a dozen people and destroyed thousands of homes, and Bass’ early response drew scrutiny after she was initially overseas on a diplomatic trip when the fire broke out. Questions have lingered over the city’s emergency preparedness, the pace of recovery efforts, and reports that an internal after-action review may have been softened.

The wildfire fallout has compounded frustrations among voters who are grappling with persistent homelessness, public safety concerns, and visible signs of urban decline. While Bass has touted initiatives like her “Inside Safe” program aimed at moving unhoused residents into shelter, critics argue progress has been uneven and slow, with encampments still widespread across the city.

Palisades Fire 1-11-25 PCH – Malibu

Crime and policing remain another pressure point. The poll shows 39% of voters want the Los Angeles Police Department expanded, while 29% favor keeping staffing levels the same. Bass has leaned into calls for increased hiring, positioning herself as more centrist on public safety—a potential advantage if she advances to a runoff.

Despite the headwinds, Bass retains one key advantage: a fragmented and relatively low-profile field of challengers.

Many higher-profile figures opted not to run, including developer Rick Caruso and L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath. Former schools superintendent Austin Beutner also exited the race following a personal tragedy. Their absence has left voters with candidates who, for the most part, lack widespread name recognition.

That dynamic is reflected in the polling. More than half of voters said they don’t know enough about Raman to form an opinion, and even larger shares are unfamiliar with other candidates. While Raman posts a modest favorability rating of 26% to 23%, her biggest challenge remains introducing herself to a broader electorate.

Still, the gap between Raman and Pratt could prove decisive. If no candidate clears 50% in the primary, the top two finishers will advance to a November runoff—setting up a one-on-one contest that could become far more competitive.

Nithya Raman

Demographic splits within the poll offer further insight into the race’s evolving contours. Bass maintains strong support among Black voters, while Raman leads among Asian and Pacific Islander voters. Younger voters appear more open to alternative candidates, while Bass performs better with older Angelenos.

At the same time, voters’ top priorities remain consistent: affordable housing, infrastructure repairs, and addressing homelessness. Bass’ campaign has pointed to declining crime and homelessness as evidence of progress, arguing that voters are frustrated with decades of inaction rather than her leadership specifically.

Still, with more than half the electorate viewing her negatively, the path forward is anything but secure. Bass may hold the lead—but the numbers suggest a city still searching for someone else.