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NEW: Pollster’s Final National Survey Shows One Candidate Holding Firm Lead

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3 weeks ago

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Former President Donald Trump is now enjoying a three-point lead over his Democratic presidential opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, in the final poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports. The poll was done both through national telephone and internet surveys, which discovered that if the election were held today, 49 percent of likely voters would cast a ballot in favor of Trump and 46 percent would do so for Harris. A total of three percent would vote for someone else or are currently undecided.

“The survey of 12,546 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-29, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC,” the report revealed.

With the election becoming a nail biter all across the country, many folks have started to make predictions based on the polling data available about who they think will end up in the White House and take control of Congress. One such individual, retired Cal State Fullerton professor Chandrasekhar Putcha, who developed a math model to predict the election’s outcome, believes Trump is going to be the next president.

Here’s more from The Sacramento Bee:

The model, from Professor Emeritus Chandrasekhar Putcha “uses engineering principles based on probability and statistics to analyze polling data from various well-known sources,” according to a Cal State Fullerton press release. “If the polling is correct, the mathematical model should accurately predict the outcome of the presidential election,” Putcha said in a statement. The model predicts that Trump will win 47.95% of the popular vote and 271 electoral college votes. It takes 270 to win.

Vice President Kamala Harris, by contrast, is predicted to receive 46.12% of the popular vote and 267 electoral votes.

The model itself has predicted three out of the last four presidential elections. It successfully predicted Joe Biden would beat Trump in 2020 and that Obama would take the victory in both 2008 and 2012. However, it flubbed when trying to call the 2016 presidential race, stating that twice-failed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton would beat Trump.

“Putcha said his team calculates a 97.4% confidence level in the polls,” the release stated.

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So what are folks on social media saying about the Rasmussen poll?

One user said, “If he wins the popular vote, democrats will never recover!” Another wrote, “It’s in the books!”

Another went on to say, “A tight race! Trump’s lead shows that voters are still leaning toward familiar faces in uncertain times!”



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