NEW: Republicans Take Lead In Gallup’s Party Identification Poll For First Time In Decades

The number of self-identified Republicans has hit a historic high, according to Gallup’s annual survey of political party preferences.

U.S. adults who identify with the Republican Party notched 48%, the GOP’s highest affiliation in decades according to results released Wednesday. The number of voters who say they lean toward the Democratic Party has dropped to 45%, down from 48% when President Joe Biden won in 2020. The mirrored change in fortunes is another sign that Republicans, led by former President Donald Trump, are in for a good night on November 5th.

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More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%).

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— Gallup (@Gallup) September 24, 2024

Further down in the poll, the majority of voters said they prefer GOP control over almost every factor influencing the election. By a 46-41 margin, Republicans are more trusted to handle the country’s “most important problems” while a solid 50% of Americans trust Republicans most to keep America “prosperous.” President Joe Biden’s job approval sits at an anemic 39% while just 22% say they are satisfied with the country’s direction.

Favorability ratings for both parties are tighter, though even there Republicans hold a one-point advantage at 43-42%. Asked which party would best keep America safe from international threats, the GOP posted a whopping 14-point lead over Democrats, 54-40%. Perhaps the most important indicator of why Republicans are gaining ground is the level of government involvement Americans want in their lives — much less, according to 55% of respondents.

Instances of increased Republican activism have been evident for months, at least to regular observers of American politics. Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, he led Trump by just 8% among voters under 30, a seismic shift from the double-digit advantage Democrats have traditionally enjoyed with that age group. And although Harris has made up some of that ground since launching her campaign, mainstream polls show her support among younger voters still falls short of the level Biden needed for his 2020 victory.

Similarly, Harris has failed to fully retain Democrats’ traditional levels of support among minority voters despite herself being a candidate of color. President Trump has made extensive overtures toward Black and Latino communities and touted accomplishments from his time in office, including criminal justice reform, funding of historically Black colleges and universities, and funding economic activity in urban empowerment zones. Trump still carries 12% of support from Black voters, according to one recent poll, nearly twice the level he enjoyed in previous elections.

And it hasn’t hurt Trump’s fortunes that he’s nearly been killed twice by would-be assassinations. Twice in two months, Trump has been the target of two shooters and both times seen spikes in polling as public sympathy poured out in response. On Tuesday he said that intelligence officials had briefed him about a third suspected assassination attempt being plotted by Iran and denounced what he claimed is incendiary language being used by Harris and others which are provoking the threats against him.

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