The alarm bells at the Biden-Harris headquarters are going off after a new poll of both swing states and the nation shows former President Donald Trump growing his healthy lead over President Joe Biden 109 days before the election.
Emerson College on Thursday released results showing President Trump leading the Democrat incumbent 44% to 38% national, the largest lead he has held all year in the first poll conducted since he was nearly killed in an assassination attempt on Saturday. An initial outpouring of sympathy for Trump appears to have catalyzed the shift in greater support despite pausing a slew of headlines about concern around President Biden’s age. Those results were even more pronounced in eight swing states certain to determine the outcome of the November election.
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In Arizona, a state Biden narrowly carried four years ago, Trump now leads by 10%. Georgia, which narrowly went for Biden and elected two Democratic U.S. Senators after Trump lost, now gives Trump a 5% lead. And in Michigan, perhaps the bluest midwestern state besides Illinois, Trump leads Biden 43% to 40%. Leads by the Republican were held or grew across all eight battlegrounds:
- Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other candidates 8.2%
- Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other candidates 9.3%
- Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 8.3%
- Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other candidates 9.2%
- North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.7%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other candidates 6.3%
- Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other candidates 6.5%
- National: Trump 44%, Biden 38%, other candidates 8.4 %
Virginia, a ninth state won comfortably by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020, now favors Trump by 2%, though he is tied with Biden if undecided voters are asked to choose a preference.
π VIRGINIA GE: @EmersonPolling
π₯ Trump: 45%
π¦ Biden: 43%
β¬ Undecided: 12%
—
With leans
π₯ Trump: 50%
π¦ Biden: 50%
β
π₯ Trump: 43%
π¦ Biden: 38%
π¨ RFK Jr: 8%
π© Stein: 2%
π¨ West: 2%
ββ
π₯ Trump: 47%
π¦ Harris: 45%
β
#9 | 1,000 RV | July 14-15https://t.co/UMoH4YCB7U pic.twitter.com/83HxAf4Lfj— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 18, 2024
As the general public continues souring on Biden, Democratic primary voters appear to be sticking by him. Sixty-four percent want Biden to stay in the race, while 36% think he should withdraw. Firm majorities of White and Hispanic voters think Biden should resign while 65% of Black voters want Biden to keep running.
The survey of more than 1,000 likely voters carried a margin of error of +/-2.1%.
Multiple outlets reported on Thursday that the dam around President Biden is beginning to break. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has been privately fielding calls from anxious House Democrats and telling them to abandon the embattled president if it will save their seats. She declined to rebut a report that she directly confronted Biden this week and said his obstinance will cost Democrats a chance to control the House next year. She also did not comment on a recent call by Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), a top ally and Senate candidate, for Biden to withdraw. For the first time, Biden has sounded more open to arguments about why he should step aside, the New York Times reported.
The pressure campaign continues three days after President Trump selected Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate, positioning the 39-year-old young father as heir apparent to the MAGA movement. The Republican National Convention, which ends with Trump speaking on Thursday, has generated wall-t0-wall media coverage that is fueling Democrats’ attempts to push Biden aside before their own convention takes place next month.
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