Politics
NEW: U.S. Murder Rate Declined Sharply In 2025, On Pace For Record Lows
A new analysis from crime data expert Jeff Asher found that the United States is on track for the largest single-year drop in murders ever recorded, based on data through October 2025.
The Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), which draws from 570 law enforcement agencies covering about 115 million people, indicates a nearly 20 percent decrease in murders compared to the same period in 2024. This follows a 13 percent decline from 2023 to 2024 and constitutes an acceleration of a trend that began in 2023.
The RTCI data shows murders down approximately 19.8 percent through October, with other violent crimes also decreasing. Over the same time period, robberies declined by 18.3 percent, aggravated assaults by 7.5 percent, and property crime by more than 12 percent. Motor vehicle thefts — which increased dramatically in 2020 — also dropped by 23 percent.
All in all, overall violent crime tumbled by more than 10 percent. Asher noted that none of the aforementioned figures do not include manslaughter, self-defense cases, or accidental killings.
The U.S. is set to record its biggest single-year decline in murders on record, according to crime statistics analyst Jeff Asher. pic.twitter.com/T5etR7MOgE
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The decline extends to a number of the nation’s largest cities. Chicago and Washington, D.C., each saw a nearly 28 percent reduction in murders, while New York City and Los Angeles each recorded a decline of roughly 20 percent.
Memphis — which had one of the nation’s highest homicide rates in 2023 and 2024 — also recorded a 20 percent decline in murders. This trend was observed in a number of the nation’s most violent cities, including New Orleans, which saw a 7.5 percent decline and is on pace for the fewest number of murders since 1970.
Other cities reporting low numbers include Detroit, which recorded the fewest murders through November since 1964, Baltimore (since 1962), Philadelphia (since 1966), Oakland (since 1967), and San Francisco (likely since at least 1942).
Asher estimates that roughly 12,000 fewer people were murdered in 2024 and 2025 combined compared to 2020 and 2021, with around 14,000 murders projected for 2025. “Overall, there were likely around 12,000 fewer people murdered in the United States in 2024 and 2025 than in 2020 and 2021. That is tremendous progress that should be celebrated while acknowledging that 14,000 or so murders this year in the United States is still far too many,” he said.
The decline continues patterns observed since 2023, which followed a massive spike in violent crime during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Asher noted that official FBI confirmation for 2025 will not be available until mid-2026, but preliminary data from various sources align on the downward trend.
