According to a recent survey conducted by Morning Consult, the lead that former President Donald Trump has over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis might be tightening as President Trump’s share of support remains about where it was before the shocking FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago and Governor DeSantis’ share of support increases.
The Morning Consult, discussing where the two likely candidates currently stand, notes that some of those who flocked to Trump after the raid seem to have left him for DeSantis, who has seen a jump in support since August. In its words:
The latest survey found Trump is backed by 48% of potential Republican primary voters, down from a 57% high reached in August after he was in the spotlight for the House’s Jan. 6 investigation and the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s raid of his Mar-a-Lago home — an energizing event for GOP voters.
The 9-percentage-point decline in support for the former president among potential GOP primary voters appears to be benefiting DeSantis, the Florida Republican who has emulated much of Trump’s political style and looks to be his biggest threat to another nomination. Since the August survey, DeSantis’ first-choice support among the GOP electorate has increased, from an 18% low to a 26% high in the latest survey.
The same report also notes that the two likely candidates are pulling from different bases of support, with DeSantis tending to be supported by more traditional GOP voters- white, college-educated people in the suburbs and those of retirement age- whereas Trump performs somewhat better with non-college-educated people in rural areas and young people.
The survey comes with Trump teasing an announcement that could come as soon as this Tuesday, saying at a recent rally that people should tune in on the 15th for a major announcement. In his words:
“I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida.
“Now, in order to make our country successful, and safe, and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again. Okay? Very, very, very probably. Very, very, very probably.”
That came, however, at a time when it looked like there would be a red wave rather than a red ripple. With Republicans not having done very well in midterms, Trump, though he insists that those candidates he backed tended to do well, might want to re-evaluate the situation before jumping in for 2024.
Trump has said that he doesn’t think it would be good for the party for DeSantis, who still holds a far smaller share of support than Trump, to risk splitting the party by running in a primary. In a recent interview, for example, he said:
“I don’t know if he is running. I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. I really believe he could hurt himself badly. I think he would be making a mistake, I think the base would not like it — I don’t think it would be good for the party.”