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Renowned Legal Scholar Argues Trump Conviction Will Be Overturned: ‘No Predicate Crime’

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Last week, a Manhattan jury delivered a historic verdict, finding former President Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his hush money criminal trial. The unprecedented decision marked the first time in U.S. history that a former president has been convicted of a felony. However, renowned legal scholar Steven Calabresi argues that the conviction is likely to be overturned due to the absence of a predicate crime.

The trial, presided over by Judge Juan Merchan, concluded with the jury agreeing with prosecutors that Trump engaged in an illegal conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the 2016 presidential election. The accusations centered around an alleged plan to suppress negative information, specifically through the concealment of a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Trump’s sentencing hearing is set for July 11, and the decision could result in either prison time or probation.

Calabresi, a co-founder of the Federalist Society and a respected authority on constitutional law, voiced his concerns regarding the legal foundation of the charges brought against Trump. According to Calabresi, the convictions rest on a misapplication of New York State law, which criminalizes the falsification of business records only if it is done to conceal another crime.

“Altering business records under New York State law is only a crime if it is done to conceal the violation of some other law,” Calabresi wrote for Reason magazine’s Volokh Conspiracy column. “Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg alleged that the documents were allegedly falsely altered to conceal a contribution of money in violation of federal campaign finance laws or in pursuance of winning the 2016 election by defrauding the voters of information they had a right to know. Neither argument passes First Amendment scrutiny.”

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In support of his argument, Calabresi referenced several landmark Supreme Court cases, including Buckley v. Valeo (1976) and Citizens United v. FEC (2010). These cases collectively reinforce the protection of political expenditures under the First Amendment. In Buckley v. Valeo, the Supreme Court ruled that expenditure limits on political campaigns violate the freedom of speech. Furthermore, Citizens United upheld the right of corporations and other entities to make independent political expenditures, further underscoring the constitutional protections afforded to political spending.

“Under Buckley v. Valeo, an individual like Trump can spend an unlimited amount of his own money to promote his campaign,” Calabresi explained. He also pointed to the federal government’s past reluctance to prosecute similar cases involving hush money payments. Notably, the unsuccessful prosecution of former Democratic Vice Presidential contender John Edwards set a precedent for how such cases are approached. Edwards was accused of using campaign funds to hide an extramarital affair, but the charges were ultimately dropped after a jury failed to reach a verdict.

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“The U.S. Supreme Court needs to hear this case as soon as possible because of its impact on the 2024 presidential election between President Trump and President Biden. Voters need to know that the Constitution protected everything Trump is alleged to have done with respect to allegedly paying hush money to Stormy Daniels,” continued Calabresi.

Beyond the legal arguments, he expressed his concerns about the implications of criminalizing political conduct. He warned that allowing politically charged prosecutions to proceed unchecked could have dangerous consequences for the American political system.

Calabresi said, “The Roman Republic fell when politicians began criminalizing politics. I am gravely worried that we are seeing that pattern repeat itself in the present-day United States. It is quite simply wrong to criminalize political differences.” For now, the nation awaits Judge Merchan’s sentencing decision on July 11, a moment that will undoubtedly add another chapter to the already tumultuous legacy of former President Donald Trump.

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