REPORT: Trump Planning To Snub GOP Establishment, Endorse MAGA-Aligned Senate Challenger

The MAGA base is already popping champagne at CPAC, framing President Donald Trump’s silence in Texas as a win before a single runoff vote is cast.

Activists and insiders say blocking a Trump endorsement of Sen. John Cornyn ahead of May’s GOP primary runoff is a major early victory, and a sign Washington may be bracing for a showdown between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.

The evidence, they argue, is in what hasn’t happened: no major spending push and little polling muscle from Cornyn’s campaign or aligned groups like the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund’s nonprofit arm, One Nation.

“The grassroots stood in the breach and said a resounding ‘NO’ to Cornyn,” Steve Bannon told POLITICO. “Polling and spending indicates that the Republican DC establishment reluctantly concurs. This could be the victory that empowers MAGA through the midterms.”

Behind the scenes, Paxton is still working the phones and the patio.

He made a trip to Mar-a-Lago last week for a Palm Beach County GOP dinner and was seen speaking directly with Trump, according to multiple sources. The two discussed the runoff during what one person described as “a positive meeting.” A Paxton spokesperson declined to comment.

Texas AG Ken Paxton

The lobbying blitz is part of an all-out push to keep Trump from backing Cornyn, even after the senator’s solid primary showing.

MAGA allies say they smell blood.

“The Cornyn endorsement looks dead, but it’s Trump, so it’s never certain,” a person close to the White House said. “Cornyn sealed his fate by carrying Mitch [McConnell]’s water on that ridiculous gun grabbing bill. No one thought he would be dumb enough to run for reelection after that but here we are.”

RELATED: Top Pollster Reveals Frontrunner In Texas GOP Senate Primary

For now, Trump is keeping his options open, including the possibility of staying out entirely or jumping in late for Paxton once the Senate finishes debating the SAVE Act.

“Nothing is dead,” said a source familiar with the president’s thinking. “It’s all just stasis at the moment.”

“It’s looking like he may not endorse at all,” another White House official said. “But it doesn’t seem like he has made up his mind.”

Republicans close to the White House say the timing is tricky. Trump is focused on extracting a policy win and doesn’t want to wade into a messy intraparty fight while the SAVE Act is still in play.

“Trump isn’t going to endorse against Cornyn while the Save America Act is still being debated,” one ally said. “So for now I think he stays out, but if Thune files cloture and Paxton continues to lead in every poll then I could see him endorsing Paxton. No question Paxton wins if Trump stays out though.”

Still, even Trump’s inner circle is warning not to read too much into the current freeze.

The runoff is weeks away, and Trump is known to flip on a dime.

Cornyn’s camp insists the money is coming.

“Ken Paxton said he needed $20M to win this primary and he’s barely raised a quarter of that,” said Cornyn senior adviser Matt Mackowiak. “His professional failures and indefensible personal conduct make GOP donors and Texas primary voters deeply uncomfortable.” He added: “We have a plan to win this race and we are executing it. Ken Paxton is busy whining and hiding.”

Pro-Cornyn forces are also sounding the alarm on cost.

Chris LaCivita, a top Trump adviser working with a Cornyn-aligned super PAC, said the race could drain resources better spent elsewhere.

“The question remains the same,” LaCivita said. “Does the GOP want to spend $150-200 million holding what should be a safe seat and giving up other opportunities to gain advantage?”

The NRSC is making a similar case.

“It’s been very clear that the fight to protect President Trump’s Senate Majority should not be fought in Texas, and John Cornyn is the only candidate who ensures that does not happen,” said spokeswoman Joanna Rodriguez.

If Paxton wins, some Republicans say outside MAGA groups may have to carry the general election load. One operative described the planning as more hope than certainty.

RELATED: Top Pollster Reveals Frontrunner In Texas GOP Senate Primary

Back at CPAC, though, that uncertainty isn’t dampening the mood.

Many attendees said Texas voters have already made up their minds — and Trump’s silence is being read as a quiet nod to Paxton.

“Texans — we’re done,” said Gregorio Heise, a Paxton supporter running for Congress in Dallas. “It’s already showing, even in the polling. Cornyn doesn’t do what Texans want, and [Paxton] does.”

Paxton is set to headline CPAC’s Ronald Reagan dinner Friday night, putting him squarely in front of the conservative base.

Cornyn won’t be there.

“It’s an opportunity to be able to, you know, share your vision and basically sell yourself to the crowd, to the Texas crowd,” said Mercedes Schlapp. “So Ken Paxton agreed to come, and he has a very high CPAC rating. And you know, we’ve invited Cornyn, and so we are still open. The invitation is still open for John Cornyn to come.”

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