The GOP Midterm Win is Looking inevitable

If a new poll released yesterday is any indication, Republicans seem to be reclaiming the edge. This is due to monitoring the generic ballot may sometimes indicate precisely where the next election could be going.

When questioned who they would want to see in charge of Congress, respondents chose Republicans 47-45, according to a new NBC News survey released on Sunday. It’s the first time Republicans have been ahead of Democrats in the RealClearPolitics average in a week, and their two-point lead is the largest single swing in the polling data since last week.

New @NBCNews Generic Ballot Poll:

Aug 2022:
GOP 47%
Dem 45%

Aug 2018:
Dem 50%
GOP 42%
==>Actual Result: Dem +8.4%

Sept 2014:
GOP 45%
Dem 43%
==>Actual Result: GOP +5.7%

Aug 2010:
GOP 43%
Dem 43%
==>Actual Result: GOP +6.8%https://t.co/03u8mMasZ3 pic.twitter.com/R5soKOEHtS

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 21, 2022

The RCP charts reveal that the GOP’s generic ballot performance began to decline after August 8, suggesting that the raid at Mar-a-Lago may have had a part in the decline. To be fair, Democratic support also began to decline about that time, and it took the Democrats another week to surpass Republican support.

There is a consensus that both parties have struck rock bottom as we headed into the weekend, but a new survey from NBC News suggests that the Republican Party may be on the upswing.

While the Mar-a-Lago raid may have played a role, the figures suggest that Americans have just become bored of both parties’ responses to the incident. You may have noticed that the raid itself was only reported on for a week before returning to normal. The following week, the Democrats were able to have their climate program passed into law, while the GOP spent the entire time complaining about how unfair it was. However, the average American voter has a short attention span, and eventually, they will return to the topics that genuinely matter to them: inflation and the state of the economy.

Voters may be losing faith that Democrats would address inflation because of the Biden administration’s promotion of a new “environment bill.” However, the administration has ignored the matter entirely. In light of the Democrats’ preoccupation with electric vehicles at the expense of addressing voters’ top concerns, a growing number of people are abandoning the Democratic Party in favor of the Republican Party.

To be clear, this is only one survey. Whether or not this pattern continues is worth watching, but it is expected to be very stable. Meanwhile, we’re entering the season when voters’ decisions become increasingly set in stone, leaving the Democrats with less room for maneuver. They have committed to a radical shift in energy policy regardless of the potential adverse outcomes. Joe Manchin has gotten relatively silent recently.

The Democrats did not receive a long-term boost after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The Mar-a-Lago raid did not produce a lasting uptick for the Democrats. The Democrats’ temporary surge in popularity due to the climate change law quickly faded.

The Democrats are really not actively disregarding their constituents. The Democrats have recently come to terms with the fact that voters will eventually return to them. As a result, they pushed to pass one final significant program before Republicans could block it. The voters’ growing fatigue is plain to witness.

The Republican Party is likely to gain members, and probably at a quicker rate than the Democratic Party. Time will tell, but the Democrats seem intent on being as disconnected from reality as possible.