Politics
‘TOO RED’: Top DC Insider Pours Cold Water On Talarico’s Campaign
Mark Halperin predicts Republican Ken Paxton will defeat Democrat James Talarico in Texas unless a massive Democratic wave sweeps the midterms.
The political analyst delivered that assessment Friday on 2WAY’s “The Morning Meeting,” pointing to campaign spending, Texas’ Republican lean and weaknesses in Talarico’s candidacy.
“Texas is now, for me, in the category of, unless there’s a tsunami as big as Connecticut, Paxton will win,” Halperin said.
His assessment marks a shift from his August appearance on “The Megyn Kelly Show,” when he said Talarico would prevail if the election were held then.
At the time, Halperin argued that Republicans needed to change the race’s trajectory and draw a sharper contrast between the candidates. He also stressed that the GOP had time to turn things around.
By Friday, Halperin was arguing that Texas was unlikely to deliver Democrats their decisive fourth net Senate pickup. If Talarico wins, he said, Democrats would likely be gaining more than four seats.
The discussion followed a viewing of Talarico’s latest response to Republican attack ads.
WATCH:
“Texas is now, for me, in the category of, unless there’s a tsunami as big as Connecticut, Paxton will win,” says @MarkHalperin. “There’s just too much money being spent. It’s still too red a state. Talarico is still a flawed candidate for a lot of Texans. So I think I Texas will… pic.twitter.com/7upNGlaYDt
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 2, 2026
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Democratic strategist Kevin Walling questioned the spot, saying he probably would not approve it as campaign manager. He criticized its dark presentation and suggested an earlier diner ad had been more effective.
Co-host Larry O’Connor argued that Talarico’s attacks were aimed at keeping Republicans who backed John Cornyn from voting for Paxton, rather than winning them over to the Democrat.
Halperin predicted Talarico would face more negative advertising this year than any other candidate in the country, putting pressure on the Democrat to find an effective response.
