Trump Campaign Gets More Great News

So much for President Joe Biden’s State of the Union bounce in the polls.

Any ground the Democrat had made up in the months since he stanched the bleeding with a semi-lucid nationwide address just got obliterated by new polling results showing he’s sunk even lower when facing former President Donald Trump in the general election. The Western Journal reported on a Rasmussen poll, released Friday, showing Biden trailing Trump by an astonishing 10-point margin. When the pollsters asked respondents to choose among three candidates, they sided with Trump over Biden 46-36% while independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. took 9%. Another 4% said they would choose someone while while 5% were undecided.

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Time will tell whether Rasmussen, a respected Republican polling firm, has produced an outlier in recent polls which have only shown Trump in the lead by 1.5% according to FiveThirtyEight. Still, a late April poll conducted by HarrisX and the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies showed Trump up by 7 points, and just a week prior CNN produced a poll with Trump up by 9 points.

As the Journal notes, Rasmussen’s final poll before the 2020 election showed President Biden only winning by 1.5%, not the 4.5% margin he ultimately received. In addition, the methodology for the poll hasn’t been revealed, making it harder to discern whether it was conducted similarly to other national polls. But perhaps most important is to remember there are still six months to go before Election Day.

All that said, the first half of 2024 has been dismal for Democrats. A sluggish economy and lack of rate reductions by the Federal Reserve, coupled with widespread college campus protests in response to the Israel-Hamas war have put President Biden on defense for most of the past four months. Key segments of the Democratic coalition, including young people and voters of color, are supporting President Trump at unprecedented rates which have been remarkably steady over the past year.

It remains an open question what President Trump’s ongoing criminal trials will do to the poll results between now and then. He sits in Manhattan court during the ongoing hush money trial, the only one that appears on track to potentially produce a verdict before Election Day. His Georgia election interference case has been upended by prosecutorial setbacks, and his two federal trials remain paused while the Supreme Court weighs his assertion of presidential immunity. An ABC poll showed that 16% of the former president’s supporters would reconsider their support if he is convicted, but until then the continued spectacle of Trump in the courtroom doesn’t appear to be changing minds.

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