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Trump Gets Big News From ‘Gold Standard’ Pollster

Published

2 weeks ago

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Widely regarded as the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election—the TIPP Daily Tracking Poll—shows a razor-thin margin separating President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris just one day before election day. The poll’s latest data reveals Trump with a slight lead in the full field, garnering 48.8% support compared to Harris’s 48.3%, with third-party candidates and undecideds poised to play a minor but potentially pivotal role in the outcome.

The poll’s two-way matchup remains in a deadlock, with both Trump and Harris each drawing 48% of the vote. In the final TIPP poll, minor candidates such as Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent Kanye West each register at 0.7%, while other minor candidates collectively hold 0.5% of the vote.

As both candidates maintain their support in the final hours, the poll shows Harris holding steady at 48% for ten consecutive days in the two-way model. However, even with this stability, TIPP’s data indicates that 6% of voters remain undecided or open to changing their choice before casting their ballots. In a race as close as this one, last-minute shifts among undecided voters could be critical.

The full-field lead for Trump echoes previous elections where the presence of third-party candidates added a layer of unpredictability. In 2016, similar dynamics played out as Trump gained a narrow edge with the help of independent and minor party voters who sought an alternative to the main two-party candidates.

The TIPP simulations provide three distinct projections for the 2024 presidential race, each based on different data models. According to the Polling-Based Simulations, Trump is projected to win narrowly, with 271 electoral votes to Harris’s 267. This model gives Trump a 54.4% probability of victory, compared to Harris’s 44.4%, and a 1.24% chance of a tie. In key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump holds a slight lead, though the margins remain tight.

The Betting Market-Based Simulations, which rely on betting odds rather than polling data, show Trump in a stronger position, with 275 electoral votes to Harris’s 263. Under this model, Trump’s probability of victory rises to 60.2%, while Harris’s chances fall to 38.9%, with a 0.93% likelihood of a tie. Betting markets indicate higher confidence in Trump’s performance in swing states, particularly Arizona and Georgia.

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Finally, the Combined Polling and Betting Market Simulations—merging both polling data and betting odds—estimate Trump winning with 272 electoral votes to Harris’s 266. In this balanced approach, Trump’s probability of victory stands at 57.1%, while Harris holds a 41.6% chance, with a 1.3% probability of a tie. This combined model reinforces Trump’s slight advantage in critical states like Arizona and Georgia, where both data sources support his lead.

“The 2024 race is much tighter than in 2016 and 2020,” TIPP reports. “Trump has an advantage right now since he has a history of underperformance in polls due to silent voters in many battleground states.”

In 2020, TIPP was recognized by The Washington Post as the most accurate national presidential poll, praised for its precision in capturing voter sentiment. TIPP and The Hill/HarrisX polls closely mirrored the actual 3.8-point margin, while other polls tended to overestimate Biden’s support, showing a slight Democratic bias.

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