VIDEO: CNN Gives Democrats A Sobering Reminder About Midterm Polls

During a recent segment on CNN News Central, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten discussed the state of U.S. Senate races ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. He particularly focused on current polling averages in competitive contests and a historical pattern of how final results have compared with pre-election polls in states won by President Donald Trump.

A graphic presented in one segment showed that, across the 2018 to 2024 elections, Republican candidates outperformed final Senate poll averages by an average of 4.1 percentage points in states Trump carried. In states Trump lost, the average outperformance was 0.2 points. That figure drew from races with at least two polls.

Enten noted that this pattern has appeared consistently in recent cycles and has been concentrated in states Trump won, rather than those he lost.

Enten’s aggregate of recent polls showed narrow margins in several states Trump won by double digits in 2024. These included a tie in Kansas, a Democratic lead of one point in Iowa, two points in Maine, three points in Texas, three points in Michigan, and four points in Ohio. Alaska also showed a Democratic Party lead of about three points.

Democrats would need to win a majority of these contests to gain Senate control. Notably, many of the margins fall within typical polling error ranges.

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CNN: The GOP outperform senate polls in Trump states by an average of 4.1 points

If that counties
Ohio 🔵 Dem +4 -> 🔴 GOP +0.1
Michigan 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔴 GOP +1
Alaska 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔴 GOP +1
Texas 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔴 GOP +1
Iowa 🔵 Dem +1 -> 🔴 GOP +3
Kansas 🟡 Tied -> 🔴 GOP +4 pic.twitter.com/jfowTCbPI4

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 23, 2026

Enten then addressed what would occur if the 4.1-point average outperformance in Trump-won states repeated. Applying that adjustment to the current averages would shift Ohio from a four-point Democratic Party lead to a 0.1-point Republican edge, Michigan from a three-point Democratic Party lead to a one-point Republican edge, Alaska and Texas from 3-point Democratic Party leads to 1-point Republican edges, Iowa from a one-point Democratic Party lead to a three-point Republican edge, and Kansas from a tie to a 4-point Republican edge.

Under that scenario, Republicans would retain Senate control by a 52-48 margin, holding seats in Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska.

In the segment, Enten stressed that Democrats hold leads in the current averages and would gain the Senate if those averages match Election Day results. He also noted the historical pattern of Republican outperformance in states Trump won and said the outcome depends on whether polling accuracy differs this cycle.

He then referenced the average error rate of roughly 3.7 points in recent close Senate races and observed that several current contests fall within that range.

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