‘VIRTUALLY TIED’: Bombshell Poll Shakes Up Closely-Watched Governor’s Race

New Jersey’s governor showdown is going down to the wire, and it’s a nail-biter.

A fresh Emerson College survey shows Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill clinging to a razor-thin 49% to 48% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with just 3% still on the fence as the final votes loom.

Pollsters say the Garden State is split straight down the middle — and the battle lines are drawn along gender. “Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherill’s lead among women grew by eight points.”

Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman and former Navy pilot, is fighting to hold the seat Democrats have controlled for years. Ciattarelli — a former state Assemblyman who nearly stunned Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021 — is hoping his comeback run lands differently this time. He’s backed by President Donald Trump, who jumped in recently during a telephone town hall to rally supporters.

Both contenders have hauled in close to $20 million each, meaning neither side is starving for cash in the final sprint.

Jack Ciattarelli and Donald Trump

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New Jersey is one of only two states holding gubernatorial elections this November, and national operatives are watching closely. For decades, Jersey voters routinely chose a governor opposite the party in the White House — until Murphy broke that trend in 2021 while Joe Biden sat in the Oval Office.

The stakes go even deeper down-ballot. All 80 seats in the Democrat-controlled General Assembly are also up Tuesday, where Democrats currently enjoy a 52-28 edge.

Despite its reputation as deep-blue turf, New Jersey has been showing cracks. Vice President Kamala Harris only scraped together 52% of the state’s vote in 2024 — a five-point drop from Biden’s 2020 performance.

Meanwhile, Trump flipped five counties — Atlantic, Cumberland, Gloucester, Morris, and a shocker in Passaic, a county Biden won by a whopping 17 points just four years earlier. Ciattarelli carried four of those five counties in his 2021 run, falling short only in Passaic.

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