Politics
WATCH: Veteran Political Strategist Reveals Crucial Factor Pollsters Could Be Overlooking
A veteran political strategist who has worked on a number of high-profile campaigns believes that pollsters are once again getting it “wrong” down the stretch of the 2024 election cycle by ignoring a “massive shift” in voter registration since 2020.
Alex Castellanos, who has worked on presidential campaigns for Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, told Fox News that pollsters are overlooking a significant bump in enthusiasm for Republican voters.
“I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation. You know, 95 percent confidence level means that 5 percent of the time you’re going to get a crappy poll. We hardly ever see that. It’s like they’re telling us we’re watching a basketball game where every play’s a jump ball,” he said. “Somebody is missing something.”
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That something, Castellanos believes, is “a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this.”
“31 states have voter registration by party. 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans. Miami-Dade County is now voting more Republican. Iowa was plus one Republican. It’s now plus ten,” the veteran strategist noted. “And yet we’re getting these surveys that I think there’s, I’m not going to call it a wave, but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration. If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching or new, what am I going to do?”
Republicans have indeed enjoyed a massive surge in voter registrations in dozens of states, including pivotal battlegrounds.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans have added roughly 400,000 new voters since 2020, which has significantly narrowed the Democratic Party’s registration edge. Republicans have also shattered early voting records in a number of swing states, including Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida.
An internal memo released by the Trump Campaign on Monday also revealed several red flags for Democrats in battleground states, as turnout in urban areas, and among female voters, is down significantly when compared with the same time in 2020. Urban turnout is currently down by more than 300,000 votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while female turnout is down by more than 200,000 votes in Michigan and an astonishing 450,802 votes in Pennsylvania.
Despite these metrics, Trump and Harris remain neck-and-neck in the RealClearPolitics polling average in every state with the exception of Arizona.
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