Politics
JUST IN: New Poll Shows Dem Senate Seat At Risk Of Flip
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is clinging to a narrow lead over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate race, according to a new poll that shows neither candidate cracking 50%.
The latest Quantus Insights survey found Ossoff leading Collins 49% to 45% among likely voters when those leaning toward a candidate are included, leaving about 5% still undecided.
On the initial ballot test, Ossoff received 48.2% support compared with 44.4% for Collins. Another 6.5% were undecided, and 0.9% preferred someone else.
When voters leaning toward one of the candidates were included, Ossoff’s support rose to 49.0% while Collins climbed to 44.9%. Another 5.2% remained undecided.
The poll was conducted Sept. 14-16. Quantus Insights surveyed 664 respondents, with 645 included in its likely voter analysis.
The remaining undecided voters proved difficult to move. Nearly four in five who initially said they were undecided remained uncommitted when pressed to choose between Ossoff and Collins.
The numbers also revealed stark divides across gender, race and age.
Ossoff held a commanding 54% to 37% advantage among women, while Collins flipped the script with men, leading 52% to 42%.
An even wider gap emerged along racial lines.
Ossoff dominated among Black voters, 82% to 10%, while Collins held a 61% to 31% advantage among white voters.
Age was another dividing line.
Ossoff led Collins 58% to 29% among voters ages 18 to 29 and 53% to 37% among those ages 30 to 44. His advantage shrank to 48% to 45% among voters ages 45 to 64.
Collins held the upper hand with seniors, leading Ossoff 55% to 41% among voters 65 and older.
Quantus cautioned that the younger age groups contained smaller sample sizes, making the precise margins less certain.
Both candidates also appear to have consolidated their respective partisan bases, with each receiving 93% support among voters classified with their respective party.
Independent voters remain considerably less settled.
Ossoff led Collins 42% to 29% among independents, but 26% remained undecided. The independent subgroup also had a smaller sample size, meaning the precise margin carries greater uncertainty.
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The geographic breakdown showed another major split.
Ossoff led Collins 48% to 44% among suburban voters and 55% to 38% in the Atlanta media market.
Collins, meanwhile, dominated among rural voters, 61% to 33%.
Neither candidate reached 50% among suburban voters, leaving that closely divided bloc with room for movement.
Ossoff also held a slightly higher net favorability rating statewide.
The Democratic incumbent was viewed favorably by 51.4% of respondents and unfavorably by 45.8%, giving him a net positive rating of 5.6 percentage points.
Collins was viewed favorably by 44.7% and unfavorably by 41.0%, giving him a net positive rating of 3.7 points.
But Collins remains less familiar to a notable chunk of the electorate.
Just 2.8% of respondents were unfamiliar with Ossoff or had no opinion of him, compared with 14.3% for Collins.
The Quantus poll comes as Georgia once again finds itself at the center of the battle for control of the Senate. Ossoff is seeking a second term, while Collins is looking to flip the seat for Republicans.
Quantus Insights contacted respondents through SMS invitations and weighted the results to demographic and geographic benchmarks.
Of the 664 respondents surveyed, 645 were included in the likely voter analysis. The approximate margin of error for an individual percentage is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Subgroup results carry greater uncertainty.
